The Miami Marlins, riding high after sweeping the Yankees and winning four of Cal Quantrill's last five starts, look to continue their hot streak as they host the struggling Houston Astros at loanDepot park on Tuesday night.
Spencer Arrighetti returns from a broken thumb injury for the Astros, who are desperately trying to maintain their lead in the AL West after being swept by the Red Sox over the weekend.
With Miami's offense heating up and Houston's bats cooling off, this matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions as the playoff race intensifies.
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 52.5% chance of defeating the Astros.
Miami Marlins: 52.5% win probability
- Surging momentum (5-1 in last 6 games with LWWWW recent form)
- Home field advantage (Miami's record shows better performance at home versus Houston on the road)
- Offensive capability (477 runs scored despite fewer games played than Houston)
Houston Astros: 47.5% win probability
- Recent struggles (1-4 in last 5 games with WLLLW recent form)
- Road performance issues (lower win percentage away from Minute Maid Park)
- Defensive vulnerabilities (441 runs allowed, which is good overall but higher than Miami's expected runs allowed per game)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Miami Marlins | Houston Astros | |
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Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros preview
The Marlins enter Tuesday's clash riding high after a weekend sweep of the Yankees, looking to continue their surge toward playoff relevance as they hover around the .500 mark.
Houston, meanwhile, stumbles into Miami after being swept by Boston, with injuries plaguing their rotation and pressure mounting from division rivals.
The pitching matchup features Spencer Arrighetti, making his return from a broken thumb, against Cal Quantrill, who has silently transformed into Miami's stabilizing force with just one run allowed across his last three starts.
Kyle Stowers has been Miami's offensive catalyst, already hammering 25 home runs this season and leading the club in average, homers, and RBIs.
The Astros will hope their deadline acquisitions—Jesus Sanchez and returning favorite Carlos Correa—can spark an offense that managed just five runs during their three-game skid in Boston.
Despite Houston's superior record, the momentum clearly favors a Miami squad that has quietly been the National League's second-hottest team since June.
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros form
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