The Cleveland Guardians bring their hot bats and impressive bullpen to Citi Field on Tuesday night to face a struggling New York Mets squad that's looking to snap out of their recent slump.
With Logan Allen taking the mound for Cleveland against the Mets' Clay Holmes, this interleague matchup pits a Guardians team that's won back-to-back series against a New York side that's dropped five of their last six games.
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Mets vs Guardians matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 55% chance of defeating the Guardians.
New York Mets: 55% win probability
- Superior offensive output (498 runs scored compared to Cleveland's 443)
- Higher overall win percentage (.558 vs Cleveland's .509)
- Exceptional home field advantage (Recent form LLWLL shows alternating results, suggesting they're due for a win)
Cleveland Guardians: 45% win probability
- Road game disadvantage (Mets' home field advantage tilts probability)
- Scoring deficiency (443 runs scored ranks among bottom third in league)
- Recent inconsistency (WLWWW shows volatility that could work against them on the road)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Mets | Cleveland Guardians | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians preview
The struggling Mets look to snap out of their recent funk when they host the Guardians Tuesday night at Citi Field, having dropped five of their last six games including a disastrous sweep in San Diego.
Cleveland arrives in Queens with momentum after consecutive series wins against the Rockies and Twins, with their offense clicking at an impressive .293 clip over the past week.
The pitching matchup features Guardians lefty Logan Allen (7-9, 4.06 ERA) against Mets veteran Clay Holmes (9-6, 3.45 ERA), with Allen potentially holding the advantage as New York has posted a woeful .547 OPS against southpaws recently.
While the Mets' playoff position remains comfortable at 63-49, Cleveland (56-55) sits just three games out of the AL wild card picture, making this interleague clash particularly meaningful for the visitors.
The bullpen battle could prove decisive, with Cleveland's relievers posting a stellar 2.20 ERA over their last 10 days despite missing closer Emmanuel Clase, while New York's relief corps has struggled with a 5.61 ERA in their last 25.2 innings.
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians form
New York Mets vs. Cleveland Guardians head to head
New York Mets
33%
Cleveland Guardians
67%
Aug 4, 2025
New York Mets
6 : 7
Cleveland Guardians
May 22, 2024
Cleveland Guardians
6 : 3
New York Mets
May 21, 2024
Cleveland Guardians
7 : 6
New York Mets
May 20, 2024
Cleveland Guardians
3 : 1
New York Mets
May 21, 2023
New York Mets
2 : 1
Cleveland Guardians
May 21, 2023
New York Mets
5 : 4
Cleveland Guardians
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