The struggling Baltimore Orioles (51-61) look to continue their competitive play against strong opponents as they face the Philadelphia Phillies (63-48) in the second game of their three-game series at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday night.
Dean Kremer takes the mound for Baltimore after limiting opponents to three or fewer runs in five of his last eight starts, while Philadelphia counters with Taijuan Walker, who has surrendered seven home runs across his last three outings.
With the Orioles scoring an impressive 7.1 runs per game over their last ten contests and the Phillies just half a game ahead of the Mets in a tight division race, this interleague matchup promises plenty of offensive fireworks.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles matchup, our predictive model gives the Phillies a 55.33% chance of defeating the Orioles.
Philadelphia Phillies: 55.33% win probability
- Strong overall record (64-48, 4th in National League with .571 win percentage)
- Excellent run production (529 runs scored, 9th best in MLB)
- Solid defensive performance (451 runs allowed, 8th best in MLB)
Baltimore Orioles: 44.67% win probability
- Poor recent form (LLWLL in last five games, struggling to find consistency)
- Defensive liability (571 runs allowed, 5th worst in American League)
- Road struggles (51-62 overall record places them 13th in American League standings)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Philadelphia Phillies | Baltimore Orioles | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles preview
The Phillies look to extend their slim half-game lead over the Mets as they host a rebuilding Orioles squad at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday evening.
Dean Kremer takes the mound for Baltimore, bringing solid recent form despite the team's struggles, including holding the Phillies to just one run in their only previous matchup.
Philadelphia counters with Taijuan Walker, who's been steady if unspectacular with his 3.82 ERA, though the veteran has alarming surrendered seven homers across his last three starts.
The Orioles' offense has surprisingly caught fire lately, averaging over seven runs in their last ten games, while Kyle Schwarber continues his power surge for Philadelphia with two homers in his last five contests.
Citizens Bank Park has been a fortress for the Phillies this season (35-20 at home), though Baltimore has shown remarkable resilience with three of their last four losses coming by just a single run.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles form
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles head to head
Philadelphia Phillies
33%
Baltimore Orioles
67%
Aug 4, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
13 : 3
Baltimore Orioles
Mar 16, 2025
Baltimore Orioles
1 : 12
Philadelphia Phillies
Mar 9, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
12 : 2
Baltimore Orioles
Mar 2, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
5 : 4
Baltimore Orioles
Feb 23, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
3 : 7
Baltimore Orioles
Jun 16, 2024
Baltimore Orioles
8 : 3
Philadelphia Phillies
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