The Pittsburgh Pirates look to continue their dominance over the San Francisco Giants as they host the second game of their three-game series at PNC Park on Tuesday evening.
In a pitching rematch from last week's matchup that saw the Pirates secure a 2-1 victory, Logan Webb (3.31 ERA) will face off against Mike Burrows (3.88 ERA) in what could be another low-scoring affair.
The Giants enter desperate for a win to keep their Wild Card hopes alive, while Pittsburgh aims to build on their recent sweep of San Francisco in late July.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Francisco Giants matchup, our predictive model gives the Giants a 52% chance of defeating the Pirates.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 48% win probability
- League's fourth-worst scoring offense (404 runs, only ahead of the Royals and Rockies in the NL)
- Significant negative run differential (-50) despite recent 'WWLLW' form
- Lower position in standings (12th in National League compared to Giants' 9th position, showing consistent underperformance)
San Francisco Giants: 52% win probability
- Better overall record (56-57, .496 winning percentage compared to Pirates' 49-64, .434)
- Stronger offensive output (469 runs scored vs Pirates' 404, a 16% advantage)
- Better run differential (-57 compared to Pirates' -50, indicating more competitive games against quality opponents)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Pittsburgh Pirates | San Francisco Giants | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants preview
The Giants arrive at PNC Park looking to settle a score after the Pirates swept them in San Francisco just last week, outscoring them 11-7 in that series.
In a rematch of last week's pitching duel, Logan Webb (3.31 ERA) squares off against Mike Burrows (3.88 ERA) after their previous matchup ended in a tight 2-1 extra-innings affair where both starters excelled.
Rafael Devers brings momentum to the Giants' lineup following his three-hit, four-RBI performance against the Mets, while Spencer Horwitz enters hot for Pittsburgh after belting two homers in Sunday's win over Colorado.
San Francisco, six games out of the final NL Wild Card spot, desperately needs to turn around their fortunes against a Pirates team that's been playing above their last-place standing when facing the Giants.
Both pitchers have been stingy, with Webb striking out 11 Pirates in their last meeting and Burrows allowing just three hits across six strong innings in the same game.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants form
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants head to head
Pittsburgh Pirates
67%
San Francisco Giants
33%
Aug 4, 2025
Pittsburgh Pirates
5 : 4
San Francisco Giants
Jul 30, 2025
San Francisco Giants
1 : 2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 30, 2025
San Francisco Giants
1 : 3
Pittsburgh Pirates
Jul 29, 2025
San Francisco Giants
5 : 6
Pittsburgh Pirates
May 23, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
6 : 7
San Francisco Giants
May 22, 2024
Pittsburgh Pirates
5 : 9
San Francisco Giants
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