The surging Seattle Mariners (60-53) look to capitalize on their home-field advantage as they host the struggling Chicago White Sox (42-70) in the second game of their series at T-Mobile Park on Tuesday night.
All eyes will be on the pitching matchup between Seattle's Bryan Woo (8-6, 3.11 ERA), who has been nearly untouchable at home with a 2.29 ERA, and Chicago's Davis Martin (3-8, 3.84 ERA), who faces the challenging task of slowing down a Mariners offense that recently added slugger Eugenio Suárez at the trade deadline.
Despite their overall record, the White Sox enter with surprising momentum, going 10-5 since the All-Star break and potentially posing a greater threat than their position in the standings suggests.
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Seattle Mariners vs Chicago White Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Mariners a 56.33% chance of defeating the White Sox.
Seattle Mariners: 56.33% win probability
- Strong home field advantage (60-53 overall record with a solid .531 winning percentage)
- Excellent recent form (WLWWL shows 3 wins in last 5 games compared to White Sox's inconsistency)
- Superior run differential (511 runs scored vs 489 allowed, positive differential of +22)
Chicago White Sox: 43.67% win probability
- Poor overall record (42-70, second-worst in the AL with .375 winning percentage)
- Struggling offense (428 runs scored ranks 14th in the American League)
- Weak pitching staff (491 runs allowed shows vulnerability, especially on the road)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Seattle Mariners | Chicago White Sox | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox preview
The surging Mariners host the White Sox at T-Mobile Park Tuesday night in a matchup featuring two starters heading in opposite directions.
Bryan Woo has been nearly untouchable at home this season, sporting a sparkling 2.29 ERA while holding opponents to a microscopic .179 batting average at T-Mobile Park.
Chicago counters with Davis Martin, who despite his overall struggles has shown flashes of brilliance lately, including a solid 5.2-inning performance against Philadelphia where he fanned seven.
The White Sox, surprisingly hot since the All-Star break with a 10-5 record, look to play spoiler against a Seattle team that just bolstered its lineup by adding slugger Eugenio Suárez at the trade deadline.
This pitching-friendly venue could showcase another low-scoring affair, continuing a trend where seven of Seattle's last ten games have gone under the total.
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox form
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox head to head
Seattle Mariners
67%
Chicago White Sox
33%
May 21, 2025
Chicago White Sox
5 : 6
Seattle Mariners
May 20, 2025
Chicago White Sox
1 : 0
Seattle Mariners
May 19, 2025
Chicago White Sox
1 : 5
Seattle Mariners
Mar 22, 2025
Chicago White Sox
8 : 14
Seattle Mariners
Mar 1, 2025
Seattle Mariners
9 : 18
Chicago White Sox
Jul 28, 2024
Chicago White Sox
3 : 6
Seattle Mariners
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