The Arizona Diamondbacks host the San Diego Padres on Wednesday night at Chase Field, looking to complete a series sweep after taking Monday's opener 6-2 and holding a commanding 3-1 season series lead.
San Diego's playoff hopes hang in the balance as they cling to the final Wild Card spot, sending newly acquired Nestor Cortes to the mound for his first Padres start after months on the shelf.
With both starting pitchers carrying inflated ERAs and questions marks, this NL West showdown could turn into a high-scoring affair that determines whether the Diamondbacks can extend their three-game winning streak or if the Padres can salvage a crucial road series split.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 75% chance of defeating the D-backs.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 25% win probability
- Defensive struggles with 553 runs allowed, 122 more than San Diego
- Below-.500 record at 54-59 puts them fourth in NL West standings
- Recent inconsistency shown in WWWLL form over last five games
San Diego Padres: 75% win probability
- Strong defensive foundation allows just 431 runs against in 113 games
- Better overall record at 62-51 (.549) compared to Arizona's 54-59 (.478)
- Superior run differential with 32 more runs scored than allowed vs Arizona's negative-5 differential
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | |
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres preview
The Padres arrive in Phoenix desperately clinging to that final Wild Card spot, just one game ahead of the Mets and three behind the Dodgers in what's shaping up to be a brutal NL West race.
Arizona has quietly won three straight and holds a 3-1 season series advantage after Monday's 6-2 victory, with Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte providing the offensive punch even after trading away Eugenio Suarez.
This pitching matchup screams trouble for both sides - Nestor Cortes hasn't seen game action since April 3rd and will be making his Padres debut, while Anthony DeSclafani lasted just 2.1 innings in his last outing.
The Diamondbacks might be eight games out of the Wild Card, but they're not rolling over, especially with Carroll's 22 homers leading a lineup that can still put up runs in bunches.
San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado need to get something going after managing just two runs in the series opener, particularly with their playoff hopes hanging by a thread.
With both starters sporting ERAs north of 4.90 and question marks about their readiness, this could turn into the kind of offensive slugfest that favors whichever bullpen can hold things together longest.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres form
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