The Houston Astros bring their playoff push to loanDepot Park on Wednesday as they look to take the series from the Miami Marlins, with Spencer Arrighetti making his return from a four-month injury absence to face a Miami side desperate to bounce back from Monday's 8-2 defeat.
Both teams enter with contrasting momentum - Houston snapped a three-game losing streak in the opener but has won just three of 11 games recently, while Miami saw their five-game winning streak end but remains hot with nine wins in 12 contests.
The pitching matchup presents clear advantages for both offenses, as Arrighetti faces his first major test since April and Marlins starter Janson Junk has been hammered for 15 runs across his last three outings.
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros matchup, our predictive model gives the Astros a 72.5% chance of defeating the Marlins.
Miami Marlins: 27.5% win probability
- Poor offensive output with just 480 runs in 112 games
- Struggling run prevention, allowing 530 runs this season
- Mediocre .491 winning percentage (55-57) in competitive NL East
Houston Astros: 72.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production with 493 runs scored in 114 games
- Excellent run prevention, allowing just 444 runs (best among playoff contenders)
- Solid divisional standing at 64-50 (.561) leading the AL West
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Miami Marlins | Houston Astros | |
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Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros preview
The Astros look to build on their 8-2 series opener victory as they send Spencer Arrighetti to the mound for his first start since April after recovering from a thumb injury.
Houston has struggled lately with just three wins in their last 11 games, managing only a .235 team average during that stretch, but they found their offense Monday night going 6-for-12 with runners in scoring position.
Miami saw their five-game winning streak snapped in the opener despite solid recent form that saw them win nine of 12 games before Monday's setback.
The pitching matchup favors neither side as Arrighetti returns from a lengthy absence while Marlins starter Janson Junk has been hammered for 15 runs over his last three outings.
Both lineups have struggled against right-handed pitching recently, with Houston posting a 91 wRC+ and Miami a 97 wRC+ over the past 10 days.
The Astros bullpen could be the difference maker if Arrighetti's pitch count gets managed carefully in his return from the injured list.
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros form
Miami Marlins vs. Houston Astros head to head
Miami Marlins
33%
Houston Astros
67%
Aug 5, 2025
Miami Marlins
3 : 7
Houston Astros
Aug 4, 2025
Miami Marlins
2 : 8
Houston Astros
Mar 22, 2025
Houston Astros
5 : 6
Miami Marlins
Mar 20, 2025
Miami Marlins
0 : 11
Houston Astros
Mar 15, 2025
Houston Astros
6 : 4
Miami Marlins
Mar 13, 2025
Miami Marlins
5 : 10
Houston Astros
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