The Miami Marlins travel to Truist Park on Thursday as surprising road favorites against the struggling Atlanta Braves, with the line opening at Marlins -275 despite both teams sitting well below .500.
Veterans Eury Perez and Carlos Carrasco take the mound in what shapes up as a critical late-season matchup for two clubs fighting to salvage respectability from disappointing campaigns.
With Miami's slight edge in the standings at 55-57 compared to Atlanta's 47-65 record, this National League East clash could define the final month trajectories for both franchises.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 75% chance of defeating the Braves.
Atlanta Braves: 25% win probability
- Worst record in NL East at 47-66 (.416), sitting 19 games behind division-leading Philadelphia
- Struggling offense averaging just 4.14 runs per game (468 runs in 113 games)
- Poor recent form with LLLWL showing inconsistent play over their last five contests
Miami Marlins: 75% win probability
- Better overall record at 56-57 (.496) compared to Atlanta's 47-66 (.416)
- Superior run differential with 486 runs scored vs 534 allowed (-48) while Atlanta sits at 468-498 (-30)
- Recent momentum with WLLWW form showing signs of improvement heading into this matchup
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | |
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Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins preview
The Marlins head to Truist Park with a clear edge on paper, backed by hefty -275 moneyline odds against a struggling Atlanta squad sitting 18 games under .500.
Eury Perez takes the ball for Miami sporting a sharp 3.00 ERA and an even better 2.95 FIP across 141 innings, giving the visitors a significant pitching advantage over veteran Carlos Carrasco.
Atlanta's offense has been anemic this season, managing just 4.14 runs per game while striking out nearly 1,000 times, making life easier for a Marlins staff that's been steady if unspectacular.
The Braves' bullpen woes tell the story of their disappointing campaign with a league-worst 51.5% save percentage and 16 blown saves, while Miami's relievers have been more reliable at 60.9%.
Both teams find themselves in familiar territory as sellers at the trade deadline, but Miami's superior pitching matchup and recent form make them the logical choice in what could be a low-scoring affair.
With the total set at 8 runs, this shapes up as exactly the type of game where Perez's control and Atlanta's offensive struggles could keep the scoreboard quiet at Truist Park.
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins form
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins head to head
Atlanta Braves
40%
Miami Marlins
60%
Jun 22, 2025
Miami Marlins
5 : 3
Atlanta Braves
Jun 21, 2025
Miami Marlins
0 : 7
Atlanta Braves
Jun 20, 2025
Miami Marlins
6 : 2
Atlanta Braves
Apr 5, 2025
Atlanta Braves
0 : 4
Miami Marlins
Apr 4, 2025
Atlanta Braves
10 : 0
Miami Marlins
Mar 6, 2025
Atlanta Braves
1 : 1
Miami Marlins
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