Thursday's MLB slate features fascinating pitching mismatches that create clear betting value across multiple games.
From Paul Skenes facing inflated odds despite his 2.02 ERA to struggling starters like Shane Smith allowing 15 runs in 16.1 innings, the contrasts are stark.
Our experts have identified strong angles on totals, moneylines, and value plays that capitalize on these disparities.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
 @ | 6:40 PM |
Pirates vs. Reds betting tips
Both Shane Smith and Logan Gilbert enter this game with concerning recent form, as Smith has surrendered 15 runs over his last 16.1 innings while failing to reach the 5th inning in six straight starts.
Gilbert has allowed 7 runs in his last 11 innings across two starts, and the White Sox lineup has historically hit well against him with a .286 average in 42 career at-bats.
The White Sox bullpen has been shaky, giving up 8 runs in their last 3 games, while Seattle's relief corps has also struggled with 6 runs allowed over the past 2 nights against Chicago.
Seattle alone has surpassed the total in both games of this series so far, indicating the offensive environment is conducive to run scoring.
With both starters struggling and unreliable bullpens likely to see extended work, this total appears too low given the recent offensive output from both sides.
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