The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday night at PNC Park in a clash between two teams heading in opposite directions, with Cincinnati (60-54) pushing for a playoff spot while Pittsburgh (49-65) continues to struggle offensively.
Rising star Paul Skenes takes the mound for Pittsburgh with his stellar 1.99 ERA, facing veteran Brady Singer and a Reds offense that ranks 10th in runs per game at 4.6.
The betting market shows mixed signals with Cincinnati favoured at -122 on the moneyline despite Pittsburgh being slight home favourites on the spread, setting up an intriguing matchup between contrasting team trajectories.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds matchup, our predictive model gives the Pirates a 68.5% chance of defeating the Reds.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 68.5% win probability
- Home field advantage with recent momentum (2-3 in last 5 but coming off back-to-back wins)
- Superior defensive efficiency allowing fewer runs per game (4.06 runs against vs Reds' 4.17)
- Better run differential despite lower win percentage (-59 vs Reds' +42 shows recent improvement)
Cincinnati Reds: 31.5% win probability
- Inconsistent road performance with shaky recent form (2-3 in last 5 games)
- Mediocre offensive production relative to division standing (4.53 runs per game)
- Vulnerable bullpen allowing 4.17 runs per game against weaker competition
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds preview
The Pirates return home to PNC Park riding some momentum behind rookie phenom Paul Skenes, who continues to dazzle with a microscopic 1.99 ERA and elite 0.934 WHIP that has opposing hitters baffled.
Cincinnati counters with Brady Singer, a veteran right-hander whose 4.30 career ERA suggests Pittsburgh's struggling offense might find some breathing room at the plate.
The offensive numbers tell a stark story - the Reds are averaging 4.6 runs per game compared to Pittsburgh's league-worst 3.55, but home cooking at PNC Park could level the playing field.
Pittsburgh's defense has been quietly effective with the third-best defensive efficiency in baseball at 71.3%, which could prove crucial in what shapes up as a pitcher-friendly affair.
Both bullpens have struggled with save situations this season, with Cincinnati converting just 66.7% of their chances and Pittsburgh an even shakier 57.1%, setting up potential late-inning drama.
With the Pirates desperately trying to salvage something from a disappointing season and the Reds pushing for playoff positioning, this Thursday night clash carries plenty of weight for both clubs.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds form
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds head to head
Pittsburgh Pirates
33%
Cincinnati Reds
67%
May 21, 2025
Pittsburgh Pirates
3 : 1
Cincinnati Reds
May 20, 2025
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 : 0
Cincinnati Reds
May 19, 2025
Pittsburgh Pirates
1 : 7
Cincinnati Reds
Apr 13, 2025
Cincinnati Reds
4 : 0
Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 12, 2025
Cincinnati Reds
5 : 2
Pittsburgh Pirates
Apr 11, 2025
Cincinnati Reds
5 : 3
Pittsburgh Pirates
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