The Cleveland Guardians (59-55) visit the struggling Chicago White Sox (42-72) at Rate Field on Saturday, with Cleveland holding a commanding 3-1 advantage in the season series and looking to build momentum in their wild card push.
Fresh off sweeping the Mets in New York, the Guardians sit just 1.5 games out of the final playoff spot, while the White Sox enter coming off four straight losses on their disastrous West Coast road trip.
With Joey Cantillo taking the mound for Cleveland against Chicago's Sean Burke, this matchup presents an opportunity for the White Sox to salvage something from what has been a historically poor campaign.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians matchup, our predictive model gives the White Sox a 61.33% chance of defeating the Guardians.
Chicago White Sox: 61.33% win probability
- Home field advantage in crucial divisional matchup (White Sox hosting at Guaranteed Rate Field)
- Better offensive production despite poor record (445 runs scored vs Guardians' 459 in similar games played)
- Potential for upset momentum after extended losing streak (recent form shows LLLLL, due for positive regression)
Cleveland Guardians: 38.67% win probability
- Road struggles as division leaders (522 winning percentage but traveling to desperate opponent's home field)
- Lowest offensive output among AL Central contenders (459 runs scored in 115 games, well below division average)
- Recent inconsistency despite strong position (WWWWL form shows vulnerability after four-game winning streak)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians preview
The Guardians arrive at Rate Field riding high after sweeping the Mets in New York, positioning themselves just 1.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot in a tight AL playoff race.
Cleveland's Joey Cantillo gets the ball despite recent struggles as a starter, having allowed three or more earned runs in four of his last five outings since transitioning from his bullpen role.
Chicago counters with Sean Burke, their most reliable arm this season with a 4.23 ERA and team-high innings total, though the White Sox enter losers of four straight after a disastrous West Coast trip.
Jose Ramirez continues to anchor Cleveland's offense with 23 homers and 61 RBIs, while the White Sox lean on veterans Mike Tauchman and Lenyn Sosa to provide what little offensive spark they can muster.
Both teams rank near the bottom in run production, but the stakes couldn't be more different as Cleveland fights for October while Chicago sits 19 games out of Wild Card contention.
With the Guardians holding a 3-1 season series edge, this second game of the weekend set could prove crucial for Cleveland's playoff push against a White Sox team that's been mathematically hanging by a thread.
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians form
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians head to head
Chicago White Sox
17%
Cleveland Guardians
83%
Aug 8, 2025
Chicago White Sox
5 : 9
Cleveland Guardians
Jul 13, 2025
Chicago White Sox
5 : 6
Cleveland Guardians
Jul 12, 2025
Chicago White Sox
2 : 6
Cleveland Guardians
Jul 12, 2025
Chicago White Sox
5 : 4
Cleveland Guardians
Jul 11, 2025
Chicago White Sox
2 : 4
Cleveland Guardians
Apr 10, 2025
Cleveland Guardians
6 : 1
Chicago White Sox
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