The Boston Red Sox and San Diego Padres clash at Petco Park on Saturday night in a crucial wild card showdown, with both teams firmly entrenched in playoff positions but needing every win to secure their October spots.
Boston enters riding a hot streak with 10 wins in their last 13 games, holding a three-game cushion for the American League wild card, while San Diego has been equally impressive at 9-3 over their last 12 contests and maintains a four-game lead in the National League race.
The pitching matchup features contrasting storylines as the Padres' Nick Pivetta brings a dominant 1.86 ERA since the All-Star break to face Boston's Walker Buehler, who has struggled on the road this season with a 7.44 ERA away from Fenway Park.
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's San Diego Padres vs Boston Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Padres a 53.33% chance of defeating the Red Sox.
San Diego Padres: 53.33% win probability
- Superior run prevention with just 438 runs allowed compared to Boston's 496
- Strong recent form going 3-2 in last 5 games while maintaining playoff position
- Better overall record at 64-51 (.557) showing consistent performance throughout the season
Boston Red Sox: 46.67% win probability
- Poor run prevention allowing 496 runs, 58 more than San Diego's 438
- Inconsistent recent play going 4-1 in last 5 but struggling on the road
- Weaker overall record at 64-52 (.552) despite similar wins, showing less efficiency
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | Boston Red Sox | |
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San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Red Sox roll into Petco Park riding a strong 10-3 stretch over their last 13 games, holding down the top American League wild card spot with a comfortable three-game cushion over the field.
San Diego has been equally impressive at 9-2 in their last 11 contests, maintaining their grip on a National League playoff position while staying within striking distance of the division-leading Dodgers.
This matchup features a fascinating pitching contrast as Boston sends Lucas Giolito to the mound against Michael King, with both hurlers carrying different forms into this crucial wild card clash.
The Padres enter as heavy favorites at home, where their pitching staff has been dominant all season, ranking third in MLB with just 3.88 runs allowed per nine innings.
Boston's offense has been clicking on all cylinders, sitting fifth in the majors with five runs per game, though they'll face a San Diego staff that leads baseball in fewest hits allowed with just 856 surrendered all season.
Both teams understand the stakes here as playoff contenders, making this Saturday night showdown at Petco Park a potential preview of October baseball intensity.
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox form
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox head to head
San Diego Padres
67%
Boston Red Sox
33%
Aug 9, 2025
San Diego Padres
2 : 10
Boston Red Sox
Jun 30, 2024
Boston Red Sox
4 : 1
San Diego Padres
Jun 29, 2024
Boston Red Sox
1 : 11
San Diego Padres
Jun 28, 2024
Boston Red Sox
2 : 9
San Diego Padres
May 21, 2023
San Diego Padres
7 : 0
Boston Red Sox
May 21, 2023
San Diego Padres
2 : 4
Boston Red Sox
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