The Boston Red Sox (65-52) and San Diego Padres (64-52) meet Sunday at Petco Park in a clash between two second-place teams looking to strengthen their playoff positioning.
Both clubs enter hot, with Boston riding eight wins in their last 10 games behind a potent offense averaging 5.02 runs per contest, while San Diego counters with seven wins in 10 games anchored by elite pitching that ranks third in MLB with a 3.58 team ERA.
The pitching matchup features Boston's struggling Brayan Bello (4.10 ERA) against San Diego's Dylan Cease, who has been dominant with a 3.41 expected ERA and 162 strikeouts in 123 innings.
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Padres vs Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 63.67% chance of defeating the Padres.
San Diego Padres: 36.33% win probability
- Struggling recent form with WLWWL record over last 5 games
- Defensive concerns allowing 452 runs, middle of the pack in NL
- Lower run production at 483 runs scored, well below Red Sox output
Boston Red Sox: 63.67% win probability
- Explosive offensive production (591 runs scored, ranking 4th in AL)
- Superior overall record at .551 winning percentage vs Padres' .556
- Recent momentum with LWLWW form showing resilience in close games
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| San Diego Padres | Boston Red Sox | |
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San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Red Sox roll into Petco Park riding serious momentum with eight wins in their last 10 games, putting them just behind Baltimore in a tight AL East race.
Boston's offense has been their calling card this season, averaging 5.02 runs per game behind Alex Bregman's .295/.375/.526 slash line and a deep lineup that's been crushing baseballs all year.
The Padres counter with Dylan Cease on the mound, who's been lights-out with a 3.41 expected ERA and an elite 34.2% whiff rate that's made opposing hitters look foolish.
San Diego's challenge lies in their offense, which has managed just 4.12 runs per game despite Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. providing the pop.
Boston starter Brayan Bello brings some concerns to the hill after allowing 45 runs across 116 innings, giving the Padres' top-heavy lineup a chance to break through early.
This matchup sets up as classic power-versus-pitching, with the Red Sox's explosive bats trying to solve one of the NL's most effective starters in a crucial late-season clash.
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox form
San Diego Padres vs. Boston Red Sox head to head
San Diego Padres
83%
Boston Red Sox
17%
Aug 10, 2025
San Diego Padres
5 : 4
Boston Red Sox
Aug 9, 2025
San Diego Padres
2 : 10
Boston Red Sox
Jun 30, 2024
Boston Red Sox
4 : 1
San Diego Padres
Jun 29, 2024
Boston Red Sox
1 : 11
San Diego Padres
Jun 28, 2024
Boston Red Sox
2 : 9
San Diego Padres
May 21, 2023
San Diego Padres
7 : 0
Boston Red Sox
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