The Cincinnati Reds host the Philadelphia Phillies at Great American Ball Park on Monday night, with betting markets favouring the home side at -125 on the moneyline despite Philadelphia's superior 65-49 record.
Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Phillies against Cincinnati's Andrew Abbott in what shapes up as a pivotal clash between two teams still fighting for playoff positioning.
With the total set at 8.5 runs and the Reds getting slight home field advantage, this matchup could swing on which starting pitcher can better navigate the opposing lineup's recent form.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 64.5% chance of defeating the Phillies.
Cincinnati Reds: 64.5% win probability
- Strong home field advantage with balanced offensive output (539 runs scored, 498 runs allowed)
- Solid recent momentum coming off a mixed stretch but showing resilience (62-57 record)
- Better run differential than several higher-seeded teams (+41 run differential vs Phillies' +90)
Philadelphia Phillies: 35.5% win probability
- Struggling on the road against teams with home momentum (68-49 overall but facing tough road test)
- Recent form shows inconsistency with mixed results in last five games (WWWLW)
- Defensive concerns allowing 461 runs, which could be exploited by Cincinnati's balanced attack
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies preview
The Phillies roll into Cincinnati looking to bounce back from a rough stretch, bringing Aaron Nola to the mound against Andrew Abbott in what shapes up as a solid pitching duel at Great American Ball Park.
Philadelphia's offense has been middling this season despite sitting nine games over .500, averaging 4.7 runs per game while striking out 922 times compared to just 381 walks.
Nola brings plenty of experience with over 1,600 career innings under his belt, though his 3.78 ERA suggests he's been more hittable than usual this year.
Cincinnati counters with Abbott, who's posted a respectable 3.33 career ERA and has been one of their more reliable starters when healthy.
The Reds have struggled at the plate with a .246 team average, but their pitching staff has kept them competitive with solid strikeout numbers and decent run prevention.
With both teams sitting in the middle of their respective pack offensively, this Monday night affair could come down to which starter can navigate through the lineup more effectively.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies form
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies head to head
Cincinnati Reds
50%
Philadelphia Phillies
50%
Jul 6, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
3 : 1
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 5, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
5 : 1
Cincinnati Reds
Jul 4, 2025
Philadelphia Phillies
6 : 9
Cincinnati Reds
Apr 25, 2024
Cincinnati Reds
0 : 5
Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 24, 2024
Cincinnati Reds
7 : 4
Philadelphia Phillies
Apr 23, 2024
Cincinnati Reds
8 : 1
Philadelphia Phillies
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