The Cleveland Guardians (61-56) host the Miami Marlins (57-61) at Progressive Field on Wednesday with both teams fighting to stay in their respective Wild Card races.
Cleveland enters this matchup riding momentum from a recent road trip where they swept the Mets and took two of three from the White Sox, while Miami looks to bounce back after dropping four of five games in Atlanta.
The pitching duel features two young righties in Gavin Williams (3.17 ERA) and Eury Perez (3.25 ERA), with Williams coming off a dominant 8.2-inning performance against New York.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Guardians a 75% chance of defeating the Marlins.
Cleveland Guardians: 75% win probability
- Strong home advantage with balanced offensive and defensive metrics (470 runs scored, 488 runs allowed)
- Momentum building with recent hot streak showing WLWWW form over last 5 games
- Superior AL Central positioning at 62-56 record vs Miami's struggling 57-62 mark in weaker NL East
Miami Marlins: 25% win probability
- Worst pitching staff among playoff contenders allowing 569 runs against in 119 games
- Terrible road form evident in recent LLLLW showing with 4 losses in last 5 contests
- Below .500 record at 57-62 despite playing in a division with multiple struggling teams
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins preview
The Guardians return to Progressive Field riding momentum from a strong road trip that saw them sweep the Mets and take two of three from the White Sox, keeping their Wild Card hopes alive just one game back.
Miami arrives in Cleveland licking their wounds after a brutal five-game series in Atlanta where they dropped four contests and watched their playoff chances slip further away.
The pitching matchup features two young righties trending in opposite directions - Cleveland's Gavin Williams has been dominant lately, allowing just four runs over his last 27 innings and striking out 11 in his previous outing.
Meanwhile, Eury Perez gave up five earned runs in his last start against those same Braves, a concerning sign for a Marlins team that managed just one run in their series finale.
Kyle Manzardo provides Cleveland's pop after launching two home runs in Chicago, while Miami will lean on Xavier Edwards, who sits sixth in MLB with a .305 batting average despite minimal power numbers.
With both clubs sitting in the bottom half of run production, this shapes up as a pitcher-friendly contest where Williams' recent surge could be the difference maker.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Miami Marlins form
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