The Atlanta Braves travel to Citi Field on Wednesday night looking to slow down a New York Mets team that has stumbled badly in August, going just 1-8 to start the month and falling six games behind Philadelphia in the NL East race.
Both clubs enter this matchup desperately needing momentum, with Atlanta (51-67) hoping veteran Carlos Carrasco can bounce back from a rough outing against Miami while the Mets (63-55) bank on David Peterson's stellar home form to snap their recent slide.
The Braves hold a 7-3 edge in the last 10 meetings between these division rivals, but with New York installed as heavy -185 moneyline favorites, Wednesday's clash could prove pivotal for both teams' playoff aspirations.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 69.5% chance of defeating the Braves.
New York Mets: 69.5% win probability
- Strong divisional position at 2nd place in NL East with .538 winning percentage
- Superior run differential with 526 runs scored vs 488 allowed (+38)
- Better overall record at 64-55 compared to Atlanta's struggling 51-68 mark
Atlanta Braves: 30.5% win probability
- Poor recent form with LWWWL showing inconsistency in last five games
- Terrible run differential at -26 with 504 runs scored vs 530 allowed
- Bottom-half NL East standing at 4th place with disappointing .429 winning percentage
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
| New York Mets | Atlanta Braves | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves preview
The Braves arrive in Queens desperately needing Carlos Carrasco to bounce back after surrendering six runs to Miami in his last outing, with the 38-year-old veteran sporting an ugly 6.18 ERA through ten starts this season.
New York enters this NL East clash reeling from a brutal 1-9 stretch over their last ten games, falling six games behind Philadelphia and watching their division hopes slip away despite solid pitching at Citi Field.
David Peterson gets the nod for the Mets and brings encouraging home splits into this matchup, posting a 2.33 ERA and 5-1 record in twelve starts at Citi Field this season.
Atlanta has dominated this season series with a 7-3 record in their last ten meetings against New York, but their 21-37 road record tells the story of a team that simply can't win away from home.
The Mets offense has been ice cold lately, ranking dead last in wRC+ over the past two weeks and struggling mightily since the All-Star break.
With both teams battling inconsistency and the Braves fighting an uphill battle for playoff relevance, this Wednesday night clash could provide a crucial spark for whichever side can capitalize on their opponent's recent struggles.
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves form
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