The Miami Marlins (58-62) and Boston Red Sox (66-56) kick off a critical three-game series at Fenway Park on Friday, with both clubs desperately needing wins after dropping four of their last five games.
Miami sits six games back of the final NL Wild Card spot while Boston clings to the second AL Wild Card position, making this interleague matchup a potential season-defining series for two teams heading in opposite directions.
The pitching matchup features struggling Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara (6.55 ERA) against Boston's Lucas Giolito (3.77 ERA), setting up a contrast that could determine which club gets back on track first.
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Red Sox vs Miami Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 53.67% chance of defeating the Marlins.
Boston Red Sox: 53.67% win probability
- Superior offensive production with 614 runs scored compared to Miami's 525
- Better overall record at 66-56 (.541) versus Miami's 58-63 (.479)
- Home field advantage with stronger recent divisional performance in AL East
Miami Marlins: 46.33% win probability
- Poor recent form showing LWLLL in last five games
- Negative run differential allowing 582 runs while scoring only 525
- Struggling road performance as part of weaker NL East division showing
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Boston Red Sox vs. Miami Marlins preview
The Marlins arrive at Fenway Park after grinding through a series in Cleveland, while Boston enjoyed a rest day following their West Coast swing through Houston and San Diego.
Both clubs are nursing identical 4-5 records over their last nine games, though the stakes couldn't be more different - Miami sits six games back of the final NL Wild Card spot while Boston holds a precarious 1.5-game edge over the Yankees for the second AL Wild Card berth.
Sandy Alcantara takes the ball for the Fish despite a troubling 6.55 ERA this season, a far cry from his Cy Young form, while Lucas Giolito counters with a solid 3.77 ERA and an 8-2 record that's kept the Red Sox competitive.
Jakob Marsee has been a revelation since his August call-up, slashing .436 with 13 RBIs in just 13 games, including a seven-RBI explosion against Cleveland that helped snap Miami's three-game skid.
Trevor Story continues to anchor Boston's lineup with a team-high 75 RBIs from the cleanup spot, while versatile Ceddanne Rafaela provides speed and defensive flexibility across the diamond.
The scheduling advantage clearly favors the rested Red Sox, who return home to friendly confines after battling quality opponents on the road while Miami faces the grind of back-to-back series without a break.
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