The Chicago Cubs welcome the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates to Wrigley Field on Friday night, with Chicago looking to extend their impressive season as heavy -196 favourites against a Pirates squad that sits 20 games below .500.
With Braxton Ashcraft taking the mound for Pittsburgh against Colin Rea, the matchup presents an intriguing clash between the Cubs' third-ranked offence that averages over five runs per game and a Pirates team desperately seeking momentum in the season's final stretch.
While Chicago's superior record and home-field advantage make them clear favourites, Pittsburgh's underdog status at +162 could provide value for bettors willing to back the visitors in what shapes up as a compelling Friday night contest at the Friendly Confines.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 50.5% chance of defeating the Pirates.
Chicago Cubs: 50.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production (605 runs scored, 4th best in NL)
- Solid home advantage with better overall record (68-52 vs Pirates' 51-71)
- Superior run differential (+115 vs Pirates' -85)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 49.5% win probability
- Worst record in NL Central at 51-71 (.418 winning percentage)
- Terrible recent form with five straight losses (LLLLL)
- Poor offensive output with just 432 runs scored, lowest in division
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field on Friday looking to extend their impressive home record against a Pirates team that's struggled mightily this season, sitting 17 games under .500 at 51-71.
Chicago's offense has been one of baseball's most productive units, averaging over five runs per game and ranking third in the league, while Pittsburgh's anemic attack sits dead last with just 3.5 runs per contest.
The pitching matchup features rookie Braxton Ashcraft making his mark for Pittsburgh with a solid 3.23 ERA in limited action, facing veteran Colin Rea who brings experience but has been inconsistent with a 4.48 career ERA.
Pittsburgh's bullpen has been a major weakness all season, converting just 56.8% of save opportunities with 19 blown saves, which could prove costly in a tight game at the friendly confines.
The Cubs enter this series riding their offensive firepower and superior pitching depth, having allowed nearly a full run fewer per game than the visiting Pirates.
With Chicago sitting 17 games ahead in the standings and fighting for playoff positioning, they'll look to take advantage of a Pirates squad that's clearly in sell mode as the season winds down.
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