The Seattle Mariners arrive at Citi Field on Friday night looking to continue their torrid eight-game stretch that's pushed them within one game of first place in the AL West, while the New York Mets desperately need to snap a brutal slide that's seen them lose 12 of their last 14 games.
Luis Castillo takes the mound for the surging Mariners against Sean Manaea, who's struggled lately for a Mets team that's watched a five-game lead in the NL East evaporate.
With Seattle riding momentum and New York searching for answers, this interleague clash presents a classic case of opposing trajectories meeting at a crucial juncture.
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners matchup, our predictive model gives the Mariners a 65.33% chance of defeating the Mets.
New York Mets: 34.67% win probability
- Poor recent form with four losses in last five games (LLWLL)
- Inconsistent run prevention allowing 4.16 runs per game (503 runs against)
- Below .500 record at home sitting sixth in competitive NL East division
Seattle Mariners: 65.33% win probability
- Superior defensive performance allowing just 4.25 runs per game (519 runs against in 122 games)
- Strong recent momentum with three wins in last five games (LLWWW form)
- Better divisional positioning sitting second in AL West at .549 winning percentage
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners preview
The Mariners roll into Queens riding an impressive hot streak, having won eight of their last nine games and sitting just one game behind Houston in the AL West race.
Meanwhile, the Mets are in freefall at the worst possible time, dropping 12 of their last 14 contests and watching their NL East hopes slip away as they trail Philadelphia by five games.
Luis Castillo takes the mound for Seattle with solid recent form, allowing just two runs across seven innings in his last outing against Tampa Bay, while his counterpart Sean Manaea has struggled mightily for New York, surrendering four runs in just four innings during his previous start against Milwaukee.
The offensive numbers tell a stark tale of momentum, with Seattle's Cal Raleigh leading the charge with 45 home runs and 98 RBI, compared to a Mets lineup that managed just 3.33 runs per game over their last three contests despite Pete Alonso's team-leading .272 average.
This interleague series opener could be crucial for both clubs, as the Mariners look to keep pace in a tight AL West division while the Mets desperately need to halt their slide before their playoff hopes completely evaporate.
History slightly favors Seattle in this matchup, as they've taken seven of the last 10 meetings between these franchises, though both teams will be looking to establish early momentum in what promises to be a pivotal three-game set.
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