The San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers renew their heated NL West rivalry on Saturday night at Dodger Stadium, with both teams fighting for division supremacy in what has become the tightest race in baseball.
San Diego enters riding an 8-2 hot streak over their last ten games and currently holds a slim one-game lead over the defending World Series champions, while LA looks to bounce back from a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Angels.
The pitching matchup features Dylan Cease taking the mound for the Padres against his former teammate Blake Snell, who has been dominant since joining the Dodgers with a sparkling 2.37 ERA across four starts.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres matchup, our predictive model gives the Dodgers a 64.33% chance of defeating the Padres.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 64.33% win probability
- Strong offensive production averaging 5.16 runs per game (629 runs in 122 games)
- Solid run differential of +81 with 629 runs scored and 548 allowed
- Better overall record at 69-53 (.566) compared to Padres' identical record but with home field advantage
San Diego Padres: 35.67% win probability
- Struggling offense averaging just 4.19 runs per game (511 runs in 122 games)
- Poor recent form showing LWWWW with inconsistent play
- Lower run production despite identical record, scoring 118 fewer runs than the Dodgers
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres preview
The NL West race just got more interesting as San Diego holds a narrow one-game lead over their longtime rivals heading into Saturday night's clash at Dodger Stadium.
The Padres are riding high after sweeping the Giants and going 8-2 in their last ten games, while the Dodgers are looking to bounce back from a disappointing sweep at the hands of the Angels that saw them drop four of their last six.
Blake Snell makes his return to face his former club for the first time since joining LA, bringing a stellar 2.37 ERA in four starts this season against a Padres lineup that knows his tendencies better than anyone.
Dylan Cease will counter for San Diego, though his road struggles this year have been notable with an ugly 5.52 ERA away from Petco Park that the Dodgers will look to exploit.
Both bullpens have been tested lately, with LA's relievers converting saves at just 63.6% while San Diego's relief corps has been rock solid with a league-leading 84 holds.
The over has hit in six of the last ten meetings between these clubs, and with both offenses showing life recently despite the Dodgers' recent skid, runs could be plentiful under the lights in Los Angeles.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres form
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