MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Betting Picks for 08/16/2025

Both teams enter this matchup playing poor baseball, particularly on the offensive side. The Pirates rank last in MLB in runs per game at 3.54, while the Cubs have scored three or fewer runs in most of their recent losses.

The pitching matchup strongly favors the under with Shota Imanaga taking the mound for Chicago. Imanaga is probably the Cubs' best starter and has held the Pirates scoreless in their previous meeting this season.

Mike Burrows gets the start for Pittsburgh and has shown flashes of effectiveness. In his previous outing against Chicago, he threw 5.1 innings of one-run baseball at Wrigley Field while striking out eight batters.

The head-to-head trend heavily supports the under, with the total going under in five straight meetings between these teams. In eight total matchups this season, the over is just 1-6-1.

Weather conditions at Wrigley appear mild, removing any wind factor that might boost offensive numbers. Both starters project to work deep into the game, limiting exposure to struggling bullpens.

The Blue Jays maintain a commanding five-game lead in the AL East and have won seven of their last ten games. They're playing excellent baseball at home with a 40-20 record at Rogers Centre.

Eric Lauer has been outstanding for Toronto with an 11-5 record and 2.82 ERA. He's been particularly effective at home, going 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA in six home appearances this season.

The Rangers have struggled lately, losing six of their last eight games and sitting at just 24-35 on the road. Their bullpen has become vulnerable, especially in the backend, which was exposed in Friday's game.

The pitching matchup heavily favors Toronto with two lefties taking the mound. The Blue Jays rank as a top-10 offense against left-handed pitching, while Texas sits near the bottom of the league in this area.

Patrick Corbin has been serviceable for Texas but remains a pitcher experts prefer to fade. With Varsho, Kirk, and Clement having career success against Corbin, the Blue Jays have the offensive edge to exploit this matchup.

The Mariners face a Mets team in complete freefall, having lost 10 of their last 11 games and 14 of their last 16. New York has collapsed from playoff contention to barely holding onto the final wild card spot.

Bryan Woo has been a quality start machine for Seattle, posting eight quality starts in his last ten games. He brings consistency and a 3.08 ERA against a Mets lineup that has been struggling to generate offense.

The Mets are starting rookie Nolan McLean in his major league debut. While McLean has upside with a high-90s fastball and sweeper, backing rookies in their debut is typically not advisable given the volatility.

Seattle pulled within half a game of Houston in the AL West with Friday's wild 11-9 victory. The Mariners are playing meaningful games while the Mets appear to be going through the motions of another August collapse.

Even if McLean performs well in his debut, the Mets bullpen and overall team chemistry suggest they'll find ways to lose games during this brutal stretch of baseball.

The Brewers bring a red-hot 12-game winning streak into Cincinnati, riding the best record in all of MLB this season. Milwaukee holds a commanding 7.5-game lead over both the Padres and Phillies in the National League standings.

Quinn Priester has been dominant for Milwaukee, going 11-2 with a 3.49 ERA and boasting a 13-game personal winning streak. The Brewers rank second in MLB in runs per game at 5.2 and lead the league in moneyline profit at +2,460 for $100 per unit players.

The Brewers offense features Christian Yelich leading with 23 home runs and 81 RBIs, while seven different players have double-digit stolen bases. This depth and versatility makes them difficult to contain.

Cincinnati sits just outside the final wild card spot despite winning four of their last five games. While Zack Littell brings solid numbers at 9-8 with a 3.60 ERA, he faces a Milwaukee lineup that has been unstoppable.

The momentum and form heavily favor Milwaukee here. With their current streak and Priester's individual dominance, backing the Brewers continues a profitable trend that shows no signs of slowing down.

The Astros bounce back from Friday's shutout loss with a clear pitching advantage. Jason Alexander has been exceptional since joining Houston, allowing just four hits and zero runs in his last 12 innings pitched.

Baltimore's offense has been struggling significantly, batting just .208 and averaging only 3.5 runs per game over their last six contests. This trend plays directly into Houston's strengths.

Cade Povich brings inconsistency to the mound for Baltimore with a 4.95 ERA and 2-6 record. The Orioles are just 5-10 when Povich starts, and he faces an Astros lineup that ranks third in batting average and fifth in hits.

Houston's lineup should find success against the left-handed Povich, as they're batting .264 against lefties this season. The Astros also possess a significantly better bullpen with a 3.58 ERA compared to Baltimore's 4.75 mark.

The combination of Alexander's recent dominance, Baltimore's offensive struggles, and Houston's superior lineup depth makes this a strong value play for the home favorites.