Sunday's MLB slate presents solid value opportunities across multiple matchups, with several expert-backed angles standing out. The Phillies face a must-win spot against Washington's struggling Mitchell Parker, while bullpen games and pitcher uncertainty create betting edges in Colorado and elsewhere.
Key trends include targeting weak starters like Parker (17 runs allowed in August) and backing veteran arms like Logan Webb despite recent struggles. Our experts have identified the strongest plays across today's 11-game card, focusing on moneylines, totals, and run lines where the numbers favor sharp action.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
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Nationals vs. Phillies betting tips
Aaron Nola returns for the Phillies after missing three months with injury, but his recent form was concerning with a 6.16 ERA and 1.51 WHIP before going down.
Mitchell Parker has been dreadful for Washington, posting a 10.67 ERA over his last three starts with 17 runs allowed in just 14.1 innings.
The Nationals bullpen ranks worst in baseball, giving Philadelphia guaranteed at-bats through nine innings to exploit this weakness.
Philadelphia needs to capitalize on division opportunities as the Mets have been struggling, making this a must-win spot for the road favorites.
The pitching mismatch heavily favors Philadelphia despite Nola's rust, as Parker has been getting absolutely hammered lately.
Red Sox vs. Marlins betting tips
Both teams feature strong offensive lineups with Boston ranking 6th in batting average and 4th in runs scored while Miami ranks 9th in batting average.
Janson Junk has struggled recently, allowing 3+ runs in five straight starts and giving up 31 hits in just 25 innings during that span.
Garrett Crochet has allowed 7+ hits in five of his last seven starts, which is unsustainable for maintaining his low ERA against a capable Marlins lineup.
The Red Sox bullpen is strong but Miami managed to score three runs against them yesterday, showing they can produce offense.
With both starters showing recent vulnerability and two teams capable of putting runs on the board, we expect offensive fireworks.
Astros vs. Orioles betting tips
Christian Javier makes just his second start of the season after an excellent debut, allowing only 3 hits and 2 runs to Boston across 5 innings.
Dean Kremer has been wildly inconsistent for Baltimore, following up 12 runs allowed in 17 innings with one excellent start against Seattle.
The Astros lineup bats .284 against Kremer through 67 career at-bats, showing strong historical success against the Baltimore starter.
Houston ranks 3rd in batting average and 5th in total hits this season, complementing their impressive 38-26 home record.
Baltimore's bullpen has struggled all season while Houston boasts one of MLB's best relief corps, creating a significant late-game advantage.
Giants vs. Rays betting tips
Ryan Pepiot gets a favorable matchup against a Giants team ranking 27th in home runs both overall and at home this season.
Logan Webb has been getting hit hard lately, allowing 39 hits and 16 earned runs over his past 5 starts spanning 28 innings.
The Giants enter this game batting just .196 and scoring only 10 runs over their past 6 games, showing offensive struggles.
Tampa Bay has been more productive recently, batting .259 and averaging 4.5 runs per game over their last 6 contests.
Both teams have strong bullpens, but the Rays' recent offensive edge and Pepiot's ability to limit home runs gives them the advantage.
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