The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Miami for Saturday's series opener against the Marlins as 144-money line favorites, but recent form suggests this matchup won't be as clear-cut as the odds suggest.
Toronto sits atop the AL East at 74-54 but has dropped three of their last four games, while Miami (60-67) has shown life with solid recent play against AL East opponents, going 6-2 in their last eight such contests.
With Jose Berrios taking the mound fresh off allowing 10 hits and six runs to Texas, and the Marlins covering 74 of 127 games this season, value hunters are eyeing Miami as a live underdog at loanDepot park.
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 60.67% chance of defeating the Blue Jays.
Miami Marlins: 60.67% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid defensive metrics (616 runs allowed in 128 games)
- Better run differential than their record suggests (551 runs scored vs 616 allowed)
- Recent uptick in form with wins in 2 of last 5 games (LWLLW)
Toronto Blue Jays: 39.33% win probability
- Road struggles evident in recent form showing inconsistency (WLWLL)
- Defensive concerns allowing 574 runs in 129 games despite strong offense
- Pressure of maintaining division lead may create tight play on the road
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| Miami Marlins | Toronto Blue Jays | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays preview
The Blue Jays arrive in Miami nursing wounds from a recent slide that's seen their AL East lead shrink to 4.5 games over the Yankees, while the Marlins are desperately trying to salvage something from a disappointing season that has them 14 games back in the NL East.
Toronto's offense remains potent despite recent struggles, ranking first in both batting average (.267) and on-base percentage (.337), with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer each sitting on 21 home runs.
The pitching matchup features two righties coming off shaky outings - Jose Berrios surrendered 10 hits and six runs to Texas in his last start, while Miami's Janson Junk has allowed nine runs over his past 17 innings.
Miami has quietly been one of baseball's best runline bets this season at 74-53, and they've shown well against AL East competition recently, winning six of eight in that matchup.
The Marlins will be missing some key offensive pieces including leading home run hitter Kyle Stowers (25 HRs, 73 RBIs), putting even more pressure on a lineup that already struggles to score consistently.
Both bullpens carry ERAs north of 4.00, which could make this afternoon affair at loanDepot park a higher-scoring affair than the 8-run total suggests.
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays form
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