The Yankees host the Red Sox at Yankee Stadium on Sunday in a crucial late-season matchup between two teams locked in identical 69-58 and 69-59 records respectively.
With New York favoured at -210 despite both clubs' nearly even standing, this rivalry game carries extra weight as October approaches and every win matters in the tight AL East race.
Carlos Rodon takes the mound for the Yankees against Boston's Dustin May, setting up a pitching duel that could swing on bullpen performance where both teams have shown vulnerability this season.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 56.5% chance of defeating the Yankees.
New York Yankees: 43.5% win probability
- Poor recent form showing three losses in last five games (LLLWW)
- Defensive struggles allowing 563 runs, more than Boston's 546
- Inconsistent division performance sitting third in AL East despite offensive firepower
Boston Red Sox: 56.5% win probability
- Superior offensive production (651 runs scored vs Yankees' 659, but with better efficiency at .546 win rate)
- Better overall record and win percentage (.546 vs .535 for New York)
- More consistent recent performance in division standings (2nd in AL East vs 3rd for Yankees)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Red Sox and Yankees enter Sunday's finale at Yankee Stadium locked in a virtual deadlock at 69-59 and 69-58 respectively, with both clubs desperately needing every win as the playoff race intensifies.
Boston sends Dustin May to the mound riding a solid 3.68 career ERA, while Carlos Rodon counters for New York with his impressive 1,375 career strikeouts across 1,238 innings pitched.
The Yankees' offensive firepower has been evident this season, ranking second in MLB with 5.18 runs per game and launching 210 home runs, but their pitching staff has been more generous than Boston's, posting a 4.00 ERA compared to the Red Sox's 3.74 mark.
Boston's bullpen remains a question mark with just a 59.6% save rate and 23 blown opportunities in 57 chances, while New York's relief corps has been slightly more reliable at 64.2%.
The betting market heavily favors the home Yankees at -210, though Boston has shown they can compete with anyone when May is dealing and their lineup clicks.
With both teams' seasons hanging in the balance, expect this rivalry matchup to deliver the intensity these storied franchises are known for.
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox form
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