The Boston Red Sox (71-59) travel to Baltimore on Monday night to open a crucial four-game series against the struggling Orioles (59-70), with Boston holding the first AL Wild Card spot and riding a three-game winning streak.
Both teams are dealing with significant injury lists - the Red Sox missing nine pitchers plus key position players like Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu, while Baltimore is without 13 pitchers and stars like Adley Rutschman and Tyler O'Neill.
The pitching matchup features Boston's Dustin May (7-9, 4.59 ERA) against Baltimore's Tomoyuki Sugano (10-5, 3.97 ERA), with the Red Sox owning clear offensive advantages despite recent strong outings from both starters in their last head-to-head meeting.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 58% chance of defeating the Orioles.
Baltimore Orioles: 42% win probability
- Worst run differential in AL East at -72 (567 scored, 639 allowed)
- Poor recent stretch going 1-4 in last 5 games with inconsistent play
- Below .500 record at 60-70 puts them 11 games behind Boston in standings
Boston Red Sox: 58% win probability
- Superior offensive production averaging 4.99 runs per game vs Baltimore's 4.36
- Better overall record at 71-60 (.542) compared to Baltimore's 60-70 (.462)
- Strong recent form with 3 wins in last 5 games while Baltimore struggles at 1-4
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| Baltimore Orioles | Boston Red Sox | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox preview
The Red Sox roll into Baltimore riding a three-game winning streak after dismantling the Yankees 12-1, sitting comfortably in the first AL Wild Card spot while the Orioles have spiraled in the opposite direction with three straight losses.
Boston's offense has been clicking on all cylinders, ranking fourth in runs scored and fifth in batting average, though they'll be without key contributors like Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu for this series opener.
The pitching matchup presents an intriguing contrast as Dustin May takes the ball for Boston coming off a solid outing against these same Orioles last week, while Baltimore counters with Tomoyuki Sugano, who threw five scoreless innings in that previous meeting.
Baltimore's season has been derailed by deadline trades and a rash of injuries to core players like Adley Rutschman and Tyler O'Neill, leaving a depleted roster that ranks near the bottom in most offensive categories.
The Orioles' struggles extend beyond the plate, with their pitching staff posting a 4.72 ERA that ranks 27th in baseball, creating a challenging environment for any hopes of competitive baseball down the stretch.
This series opener could set the tone for both teams' final month, with Boston looking to solidify their playoff position while Baltimore attempts to salvage some dignity from a disappointing campaign.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox form
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