The Pittsburgh Pirates visit Busch Stadium on Monday night looking to build momentum against a Cardinals team stuck in mediocrity at 64-65 despite their home advantage.
With Pittsburgh's Mitch Keller (4.55 ERA) facing St. Louis rookie Michael McGreevy (3.71 ERA), the pitching matchup presents contrasting styles as the Pirates seek to exploit the Cardinals' 22nd-ranked pitching staff.
The Cardinals enter as -145 favorites, but their inconsistent offense averaging just 4.38 runs per game could struggle against a Pirates defense ranked 7th in defensive efficiency.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Cardinals a 66.5% chance of defeating the Pirates.
St. Louis Cardinals: 66.5% win probability
- Better offensive production with 573 runs scored compared to Pirates' 467 runs
- Superior run differential at -32 versus Pirates' -70 run differential
- Recent momentum with LLWLW form showing competitive games against quality opponents
Pittsburgh Pirates: 33.5% win probability
- Weakest offense in NL Central with just 467 runs scored in 131 games
- Poor overall record at 57-74 (.435 winning percentage) ranking 13th in National League
- Significant run differential problem allowing 537 runs while scoring only 467
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| St. Louis Cardinals | Pittsburgh Pirates | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
The Pirates roll into St. Louis carrying the weight of a disappointing 54-74 record, but Mitch Keller gives them a fighting chance against a Cardinals team that's barely treading water at 64-65.
Pittsburgh's offense has been among baseball's worst, managing just 3.5 runs per game while striking out over 1,100 times, making every at-bat crucial in what figures to be a low-scoring affair.
Keller brings a 4.55 ERA to the mound, but he'll face a Cardinals lineup that's shown more life lately, averaging 4.38 runs per game behind a more patient approach at the plate.
The Cardinals counter with Michael McGreevy, whose 3.71 ERA and solid 1.075 WHIP suggest he could keep Pittsburgh's struggling bats quiet at Busch Stadium.
With both bullpens showing vulnerability this season, this Monday night matchup might come down to which starter can give his team the deeper outing.
The Cardinals need every win they can get to stay relevant in what's been a frustrating season, while the Pirates are simply playing for pride and development down the stretch.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates form
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