The Philadelphia Phillies visit Citi Field on Tuesday night looking to tighten their grip on the NL East division title, while the New York Mets desperately need wins to stay alive in the wild card race.
With Jesus Luzardo taking the mound for Philadelphia against Sean Manaea for New York, both teams bring solid pitching into a matchup that could define their late-season trajectories.
The Phillies enter as -150 favorites, but the Mets have proven dangerous at home and can't afford to let division rivals pull further ahead in the playoff hunt.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies prediction: who will win?
For tonight's New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies matchup, our predictive model gives the Phillies a 75% chance of defeating the Mets.
New York Mets: 25% win probability
- Lower winning percentage at .534 sits 46 points below Phillies' .580 mark
- Recent inconsistency with WLWWL form shows struggles to build momentum
- Division standings gap as second place team trailing NL East leading Phillies by 6 wins
Philadelphia Phillies: 75% win probability
- Superior record advantage with 76-55 (.580) compared to Mets' 70-61 (.534)
- Strong offensive production averaging 620 runs scored versus Mets' 606
- Tighter defensive unit allowing just 529 runs against compared to Mets' 549
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Mets vs. Phillies Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies preview
The National League East race takes center stage Tuesday night as the Phillies look to tighten their grip on the division while the Mets fight to keep their wild card hopes alive at Citi Field.
Philadelphia enters with a commanding 76-54 record, seven games ahead of the second-place Mets, but New York has shown resilience all season and won't go quietly in what could be a season-defining series.
Jesus Luzardo gets the ball for the Phillies, bringing a 4.25 career ERA and solid strikeout ability to the mound against a Mets lineup that's been consistent but not spectacular, hitting .246 as a team.
Sean Manaea counters for New York with his veteran presence and 78-64 career record, facing a Philadelphia offense that's been more productive, averaging 4.8 runs per game compared to the Mets' 4.56.
Both bullpens have struggled with consistency this season, with Philadelphia converting just 64.3% of save opportunities and New York at 62.1%, potentially making late-game situations crucial.
The stakes couldn't be higher for both clubs with five weeks remaining, as the Phillies can take a massive step toward clinching while the Mets desperately need to start gaining ground in the crowded wild card picture.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies form
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