The Pittsburgh Pirates head to Busch Stadium on Tuesday as massive +172 underdogs against a St. Louis Cardinals squad that's surprisingly failed to separate itself in the standings despite favourable betting odds all season.
With Mitch Keller taking the mound for Pittsburgh against Andre Pallante, this matchup features two pitchers carrying ERAs north of 4.20, setting up what could be a higher-scoring affair than the 8-run total suggests.
Both teams sit well below .500, but the Cardinals' offensive edge (4.37 runs per game vs Pittsburgh's 3.6) has oddsmakers confident in the home side despite recent inconsistencies.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cardinals vs Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Pirates a 59.5% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
St. Louis Cardinals: 40.5% win probability
- Poor recent form with just one win in last five games (WLLWL)
- Defensive struggles, allowing 611 runs against compared to Pirates' 544
- Inconsistent play reflected in .492 winning percentage, ranking 8th in NL Central
Pittsburgh Pirates: 59.5% win probability
- Recent momentum with four wins in last five games (LWWWW recent form)
- Better run differential discipline, allowing 71 fewer runs than Cardinals (544 vs 611 runs against)
- Strong road performance as they've shown resilience in difficult situations this season
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cardinals vs. Pirates Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
The Cardinals are desperate for wins as they sit seven games under .500 at 64-67, making this home series against Pittsburgh crucial for any lingering playoff hopes.
Pittsburgh's offense continues to struggle mightily, ranking dead last in the majors with just 3.6 runs per game and a paltry .234 team batting average.
On the mound, veteran Mitch Keller brings a 4.55 ERA into Busch Stadium to face Andre Pallante, who's been inconsistent for St. Louis with a 4.22 career mark.
The Pirates' pitching staff has been their saving grace this season, posting a respectable 3.93 ERA that ranks 14th in baseball while allowing just 537 runs.
St. Louis holds a significant advantage at the plate with 124 home runs compared to Pittsburgh's 94, plus they're averaging nearly a full run more per game.
Both bullpens have struggled with save opportunities, as the Cardinals have blown 17 saves while the Pirates have failed to convert 21 of their 49 chances.
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