MLB Best Bets Today August 28: Expert Picks Target Pitching Mismatches

Boston enters this series finale with serious momentum, winning their last two games and five of their last six overall.

Garrett Crochet gets the ball for the Red Sox and has been outstanding with a 2.38 ERA and dominant 207 strikeouts in 166.1 innings.

Baltimore's Cade Povich has struggled mightily this season with a 5.13 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over 86 innings of work.

The Orioles have been a massive disappointment this year, sitting in the basement of the AL East at 60-72.

Boston holds the top wild card spot and can't afford to let up, while Baltimore has little to play for in this getaway day matchup.

Kyle Freeland takes the mound for Colorado with an ugly 5.31 ERA and 1.52 WHIP that screams run production.

Even away from Coors Field, Freeland sports a 4.56 ERA and allows hitters to feast with a .271 batting average against.

Houston's Jason Alexander has found success recently with a 2.72 ERA since joining the Astros, but his career 5.07 ERA and small sample size suggest regression is coming.

The first two games of this series stayed under, but Thursday's pitching matchup sets up perfectly for offensive fireworks.

Both teams should find success at the plate against these struggling starters, making the over the clear play.

Milwaukee has won four of their last six games and sits comfortably atop the NL Central with a 6.5-game division lead.

The Brewers counter with Jose Quintana, who has been solid with a 3.32 ERA and showed his quality in his last start against the Giants.

Arizona's Nabil Crismatt makes just his second start of the season after spending most of the year in the bullpen.

The Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six road games and continue to struggle away from home.

Milwaukee's offense ranks third in the league in runs per game at 5.13, giving them a significant edge over Arizona's 25th-ranked pitching staff.

The Pirates welcome back healthy slugger O'Neil Cruz, whose 6'7 frame and 18 home runs provide much-needed pop to their lineup.

St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas has been awful lately, allowing 10 hits in under three innings his last time out against Tampa Bay.

The Cardinals are dealing with Wilson Contreras' six-game suspension, removing their top offensive threat from the lineup.

Pittsburgh holds a 6-5 season series advantage over St. Louis and split the first two games of this set.

Braxton Ashcraft pitched five scoreless innings in his last start and has been effective with a 2.70 ERA this season.

The Braves are riding momentum after scoring 23 runs over their last two games against Miami.

Philadelphia's Aaron Nola has been terrible this season with a 6.52 ERA and has allowed 21 runs in just 17 innings over his last four starts.

Atlanta recently acquired Cal Quantrill, and while he struggled in his first start, he faces a Phillies offense that's batting just .227 over their last six games.

The Phillies are coming off a demoralizing sweep by the Mets and have scored just 21 runs in their last six contests.

Philadelphia's bullpen ranks poorly with a 4.43 ERA this season, giving Atlanta multiple ways to attack this game.