The San Diego Padres bring their playoff hopes to Target Field on Friday night, facing a Minnesota Twins squad that's been surprisingly scrappy despite their disappointing 60-73 record.
While the Padres sit comfortably in postseason contention at 75-59 with MLB's second-best team ERA at 3.60, they'll face a dangerous Twins team that has nothing to lose in the final stretch.
The pitching matchup features Nestor Cortes making his Padres debut against young Twins starter Zebby Matthews, setting up an intriguing battle between veteran guile and emerging talent.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Minnesota Twins vs San Diego Padres matchup, our predictive model gives the Twins a 56% chance of defeating the Padres.
Minnesota Twins: 56% win probability
- Home field advantage in crucial late-season game (playing at home)
- Better recent form with mixed results but avoiding long losing streaks (LWLLL vs LWLLW)
- Stronger defensive efficiency allowing fewer runs per game (4.64 runs against vs 3.81 runs against per game)
San Diego Padres: 44% win probability
- Road disadvantage in must-win August games (playing away from home)
- Inconsistent recent form with more losses in last five games (LWLLW shows three losses)
- Lower win percentage despite similar record (.451 vs .560 puts them 11 games behind in standings)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Twins vs. Padres Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| Minnesota Twins | San Diego Padres | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres preview
The Padres roll into Minneapolis riding their elite pitching staff that ranks second in ERA at 3.60, but they'll face a scrappy Twins team desperate for late-season momentum at home.
Nestor Cortes takes the mound for San Diego with solid career numbers, though his 3.84 ERA suggests he's not quite the ace some expect, while Minnesota counters with rookie Zebby Matthews who's struggled mightily with a 5.94 ERA and concerning 1.588 WHIP.
San Diego's offense has been middle-of-the-pack this season, averaging 4.2 runs per game, but their 116 home runs show they can deliver the big blow when needed.
The Twins' pitching woes run deep beyond Matthews, as their staff has surrendered 618 runs and holds just a 56.8% save percentage that ranks 25th in baseball.
Minnesota's offense mirrors their pitching struggles with a anemic .238 team batting average, though playing at Target Field could provide the spark they need against a Padres team that's allowed opponents to hit .251 against them.
With both teams sitting well below .500 expectations, this Friday night matchup feels more like two clubs trying to salvage respectability than any meaningful playoff push.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Diego Padres form
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