The Miami Marlins (62-71) travel to Citi Field on Friday evening where they'll face the New York Mets (72-61) in a clash between teams heading in opposite directions as September approaches.
Miami enters as +132 underdogs despite sending promising young arm Eury Perez (career 3.29 ERA) to the mound against veteran David Peterson, who's struggled with consistency this season.
With the Mets fighting for playoff positioning and the Marlins playing spoiler down the stretch, this matchup offers solid betting value on both sides of a tight total set at 8.5 runs.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Mets vs Marlins matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 56% chance of defeating the Mets.
New York Mets: 44% win probability
- Inconsistent recent performance with alternating results (LWWWL shows lack of sustained momentum)
- Higher run differential deficit compared to opponent (-61 vs Marlins' -80, but trending worse)
- Lower win percentage at .537 compared to division expectations despite 72-62 record
Miami Marlins: 56% win probability
- Better recent form with 2-3 record in last five games (WLLWW vs LWWWL)
- More efficient offense relative to defensive struggles (574 runs scored vs 654 allowed, but Mets allow 561 runs)
- Slight positional advantage as road team against struggling home club (Mets 2-3 in recent form)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Mets vs. Marlins Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
| New York Mets | Miami Marlins | |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline |
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins preview
The Marlins head into Queens carrying the weight of a disappointing 62-71 record, but they'll hand the ball to Eury Perez, whose 3.29 ERA and solid 6.5 hits per nine innings suggest Miami might have found something in the young right-hander.
New York sits comfortably above .500 at 72-61, riding a balanced offensive attack that ranks 10th in runs per game while David Peterson takes the mound with his 3.86 career ERA and tendency to work deep into games.
The Mets' pitching staff has been notably stingy this season, ranking 11th in baseball with just 4.23 runs allowed per nine innings, a stark contrast to Miami's struggling 4.58 team ERA that ranks 25th in the majors.
Miami's offense has been their Achilles heel all season, managing just 4.3 runs per game while striking out over 1,000 times, though they've shown flashes with 128 home runs despite their .249 team average.
The bullpen battle could prove decisive, with both teams struggling in save situations - the Mets converting just 61% of their chances while Miami sits slightly better at 62.7%.
This late-season matchup carries extra weight for New York as they push toward October, while Miami looks to play spoiler and build momentum for what they hope will be a brighter 2026 campaign.
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins form
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