MLB Best Bets September 17: Top Picks for Phillies-Dodgers & More

Wednesday's MLB slate features compelling betting angles across three key matchups, with pitcher props and team totals offering the strongest value.Jesus Luzardo takes the mound for Philadelphia looking to complete a sweep of the Dodgers at -135 to stay under 2.5 earned runs, while Jack Flaherty's strikeout total presents solid value at -105 against Cleveland's righties.Our expert analysis breaks down the top MLB best bets and picks for September 17, highlighting profitable trends and same-game parlay opportunities that savvy bettors should target. Jesus Luzardo has been solid for Philadelphia this season, going 14-9 with a 4.03 ERA across 30 starts while striking out 200 batters in 169.2 innings.The lefty has cashed the under in earned runs in three of his last five outings, including a dominant seven-inning shutout against these same Dodgers earlier this season where he allowed just two hits.Los Angeles is struggling offensively right now, and Luzardo has held their lineup to a .222 batting average across 68 at-bats this season.Luzardo has pitched significantly better on the road this year, posting a 3.50 ERA compared to 4.50 at home, which bodes well for tonight's matchup at Dodger Stadium.Even in his last start when he allowed four earned runs, Luzardo still managed to pitch eight innings, showing his ability to work deep into games and limit damage."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Dodgers","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281384-team-logo-OTT2XT3J.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Phillies","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281487-team-logo-WZA8E6KY.png"},"venue":"Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California","matchDate":{"value":"2025-09-18T02:10:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}},{"fixtureId":"68K986MZ","id":"ac874690-b0f2-4322-9e4c-7ad97373dc2c","picks":[{"id":"19833ae4-7829-4254-a04d-658cac9336a4","pickName":"Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts","oddsValue":"-105","partnerId":"","description":"Jack Flaherty has been a strikeout machine this season despite inconsistent results, ranking fifth among qualified starters with a 10.56 K/9 rate and posting a solid 27.8% strikeout percentage.The veteran right-hander's 29.6% called-plus-swinging-strike rate ranks eighth in baseball, indicating his ability to generate whiffs against opposing hitters consistently.Cleveland has an above-average strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, playing into Flaherty's strength as a power pitcher.Flaherty showed his strikeout upside in his last outing against the Yankees, notching seven punchouts across five innings against one of baseball's better offensive clubs.The Detroit starter has recorded six or more strikeouts in 11 of his last 17 starts, showing consistent ability to reach this number despite some rough outings."},{"id":"a94a3c81-6a44-4dbc-8a90-6e97d203eece","pickName":"Under 8.5 Total Runs","oddsValue":"-118","partnerId":"","description":"Both the Guardians and Tigers have been trending toward lower-scoring games recently, with Cleveland going under in 34 of their last 54 road games for strong 22% ROI.Cleveland starter Gavin Williams has been excellent lately, posting a 3.16 ERA for the season and allowing two runs or fewer in eight of his past 10 starts.Detroit's Jack Flaherty, despite some inconsistency, has the stuff to limit a Guardians offense that can be prone to strikeouts against quality right-handed pitching.The pitching matchup favors both starters in this AL Central showdown, with Williams showing improved command and Flaherty coming off a strong outing against the Yankees.September baseball often features tighter games as teams manage workloads, and both clubs have incentive to preserve their pitching staffs down the stretch."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Tigers","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281298-team-logo-6RQPHN0A.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Guardians","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281257-team-logo-P14Z9RYU.png"},"venue":"Comerica Park, Detroit, Michigan","matchDate":{"value":"2025-09-17T22:40:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}},{"fixtureId":"HBMI13AW","id":"5f261996-f5ec-47a0-aca2-ebd86030493f","picks":[{"id":"55942092-aec0-4f69-85d6-4e6aa68e2387","pickName":"Cubs First Five Innings -0.5","oddsValue":"-110","partnerId":"","description":"Chicago has been excellent in first-five-inning betting, covering the run line in 83 of their last 147 games for a solid 7% ROI that shows consistent early-game value.Pittsburgh's offense has been anemic in September, ranking dead last in baseball in wOBA while averaging just 2.93 runs per game this month.Cubs starter Matthew Boyd faces a Pirates lineup that ranks 28th in wOBA and 26th in ISO against left-handed pitching, giving him a significant matchup advantage.Pirates starter Johan Oviedo has benefited from unsustainable luck with a .230 BABIP against, and his 4.55 xFIP suggests regression is coming from his 2.81 ERA.This will be Oviedo's 10th start and 11th career appearance against Chicago, giving the Cubs hitters extensive familiarity with his repertoire and tendencies."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Pirates","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281500-team-logo-MMNC69DD.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Cubs","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281188-team-logo-G7I98EP0.png"},"venue":"PNC Park, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania","matchDate":{"value":"2025-09-17T16:35:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}}]" tablefooter=" Betting on the MLB?Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.

Game	Time	Pick
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