Thursday's 10-game MLB slate brings sharp betting value as the regular season winds down, with struggling pitchers and hot hitters creating clear edges for sharp bettors.
Our expert analysis targets Chris Bassitt's dominant recent form, home run value from Mookie Betts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and total plays where weak pitching matchups favor the over.
From player props with strong statistical backing to same-game parlays built on proven trends, we've identified the day's best opportunities across afternoon and evening action.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
 @ | 1:10 PM | |
 @ | 1:10 PM | |
 @ | 7:15 PM | |
 @ | 10:10 PM |
Mets vs. Padres betting tips
Jonah Tong has been a disaster for the Mets with an 8.49 ERA and 1.71 WHIP through three starts this season.
His underlying metrics are even worse, ranking near the bottom in expected ERA, expected batting average, walk rate, and barrel rate.
The Padres offense ranks in the top half of MLB in hits per game, batting average, and on-base percentage, making them well-positioned to exploit Tong's struggles.
San Diego starter Randy Vasquez isn't much better, ranking in the 12th percentile or lower in key pitching metrics like xERA and strikeout rate.
The over has cashed in all three of Tong's previous starts, and both offenses have shown they can produce runs consistently this season.
Rays vs. Blue Jays betting tips
Bassitt has been absolutely dominant lately, allowing five or fewer hits in each of his last four starts while posting a sparkling 2.08 ERA.
Opposing hitters are batting just .175 against him during this recent hot streak, showing how effectively he's commanding the strike zone.
His 1.06 WHIP over the last month demonstrates the kind of control that keeps baserunners to a minimum against struggling offenses.
While some regression is inevitable given these gaudy numbers, there's still plenty of room for the under to cash even with slight decline.
The Rays offense has been inconsistent down the stretch, making this a favorable matchup for Bassitt to continue his strong September form.
Orioles vs. Yankees betting tips
Stanton got a full day of rest Wednesday after delivering a two-hit, two-RBI performance, setting him up perfectly for this favorable matchup.
Orioles lefty Cade Povich has been getting crushed by right-handed hitters, allowing a .341 wOBA and .451 slugging percentage to righties this season.
Stanton thrives against left-handed pitching and hits in the heart of a Yankees lineup that's been producing runs consistently.
The Yankees desperately need this game as they push for playoff positioning, creating extra motivation for their veteran slugger.
With Baltimore's bullpen also showing vulnerability lately, Stanton should have multiple opportunities to contribute across the stat sheet.
Dodgers vs. Giants betting tips
Betts is absolutely locked in this September, hitting .349 with five home runs and 19 RBIs in just 18 games this month.
He owns a dominant 16-for-42 career record against Giants starter Logan Webb with two previous home runs off the right-hander.
Webb has been hammered by the Dodgers this season, allowing six earned runs to LA in each of his last two starts against them.
Betts has cranked 13 of his 19 home runs this season against right-handed pitching, and Webb fits that profile perfectly.
With 14 home runs at Dodger Stadium this year, Betts clearly feels comfortable in his home ballpark for this prime-time matchup.
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