The Atlanta Braves host the Washington Nationals at Truist Park on Monday night with both teams looking to build momentum in what remains of their 2025 campaigns.
Atlanta enters as heavy favorites at -250 on the moneyline, backed by ace Chris Sale taking the mound against Washington's Jake Irvin in a matchup that could see plenty of offense with the total set at 9 runs.
While the Braves boast superior pitching depth and home field advantage, the Nationals have shown they can compete as road underdogs, making this an intriguing spot for value seekers.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals matchup, our predictive model gives the Nationals a 53.5% chance of defeating the Braves.
Atlanta Braves: 46.5% win probability
- Defensive struggles allowing 710 runs, 51 more than Washington
- Below .500 record at 73-83 despite playoff expectations
- Inconsistent late-season form with same 3-2 record in last 5 as Washington
Washington Nationals: 53.5% win probability
- Recent offensive surge with 661 runs scored despite poor record
- Strong finishing momentum with wins in 3 of last 5 games (WWLLL form)
- Road underdog value against struggling division rival
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds
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Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals preview
The Nationals head into Truist Park carrying the weight of a brutal season, sitting 29 games under .500 with their pitching staff ranking dead last in the majors with a 5.33 ERA.
Atlanta's Chris Sale takes the mound with impressive career numbers, boasting a 3.00 ERA and elite 1.046 WHIP across 2,073 innings, while Washington counters with Jake Irvin, who's struggled to a 4.95 ERA this season.
The Braves have managed just 70 wins despite a significantly better defensive unit that ranks second in the league with a .990 fielding percentage, compared to Washington's 22nd-ranked .984 mark.
Both offenses have underperformed expectations, with Atlanta averaging 4.42 runs per game and the Nationals managing just 4.2, though the Braves have shown more pop with 173 home runs to Washington's 143.
The bullpen battle heavily favors Atlanta, as their relievers maintain a 60% save rate while the Nationals have blown 18 of 51 save opportunities this season.
This late-season matchup between two disappointing clubs could come down to which team's starter can provide the deeper outing, given both bullpens have been tested heavily throughout a long campaign.
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