Two teams fighting to avoid the cellar clash Tuesday night when the Tampa Bay Rays visit the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards in what shapes up as a critical late-season matchup.
The Rays (76-80) enter as slight favorites despite their poor road form, while the Orioles (73-83) look to capitalize on home field advantage with both clubs desperately needing wins to salvage respectability.
With Ryan Pepiot taking the mound for Tampa Bay against Baltimore's Dean Kremer, this pitcher's duel could swing on which offense can break through against quality arms in a tight 8.5-run total.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Orioles a 63% chance of defeating the Rays.
Baltimore Orioles: 63% win probability
- Home field advantage in crucial late-season contest
- Better recent offensive production (656 runs vs Rays' 696 over 156 games)
- Identical division record provides familiarity with opponent tendencies
Tampa Bay Rays: 37% win probability
- Road struggles evident in current AL East standing (4th place, 9 games behind division leader)
- Inconsistent recent form with alternating wins and losses (WLLWW)
- Lower win percentage (.487) compared to division rivals despite solid run differential
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
Don’t miss out on top sportsbook promos. Get more out of every bet by browsing the latest US betting sites and betting apps for 2025.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Rays visit Camden Yards carrying modest expectations after a disappointing 76-80 campaign, but they'll look to play spoiler against an Orioles team that's struggled even more at 73-83.
Ryan Pepiot takes the mound for Tampa Bay with solid peripherals, sporting a 3.45 FIP and striking out batters at a strong clip, while Baltimore counters with Dean Kremer, whose 4.31 ERA reflects the struggles of an inconsistent Orioles rotation.
Tampa Bay's offense has been middle-of-the-pack this season, averaging 4.5 runs per game with decent power numbers, though they'll face a Baltimore pitching staff that's allowed nearly five runs per nine innings and ranks among the worst in baseball.
The Orioles have been particularly disappointing at the plate, ranking 22nd in runs scored while striking out at the fourth-highest rate in MLB, making run production a constant challenge.
Baltimore's bullpen has been more reliable than their rotation, converting 65.5% of save opportunities, but Tampa Bay's relievers have struggled with a concerning 55.6% save rate that's cost them numerous games this season.
With both teams playing out the string in September, expect a competitive but loose affair as younger players get opportunities to showcase their skills for next season.
Betting on the MLB?
Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.