The New York Mets (80-76) travel to Wrigley Field on Tuesday night looking to keep their playoff hopes alive against a Cubs team (88-68) that has quietly assembled one of baseball's better records this season.
With David Peterson taking the mound for the Mets and rookie Cade Horton countering for Chicago, this matchup features contrasting styles as Peterson's experience faces off against Horton's impressive 2.66 ERA.
The betting market reflects the tight nature of this contest, with the Cubs opening as modest home favourites at -145 despite both teams posting nearly identical offensive numbers this season.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 62.5% chance of defeating the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs: 37.5% win probability
- Poor recent form going LLLLW in last five games showing inconsistency
- Weaker run differential at +125 despite similar record, indicating closer games
- Allow 4.01 runs per game (625 runs in 156 games) but offense hasn't been explosive enough to overcome pitching gaps
New York Mets: 62.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production averaging 4.74 runs per game (739 runs in 156 games)
- Superior run differential of +56 compared to Cubs' +125, showing better overall balance
- Recent momentum with quality pitching staff allowing just 4.38 runs per game (683 runs allowed)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
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Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets preview
The Cubs enter this late-season matchup at Wrigley riding high with their 88-68 record, sitting comfortably ahead of the struggling Mets who've limped to 80-76 and are fighting just to stay relevant.
Chicago's pitching staff has been the story all year, posting a stellar 3.83 ERA that ranks 6th in the league, while their defense has been rock solid with a .989 fielding percentage.
The Mets counter with David Peterson on the mound, a veteran lefty whose 4.06 ERA and tendency to give up contact could spell trouble against a Cubs lineup that's been quietly productive, averaging nearly five runs per game.
For Chicago, rookie Cade Horton takes the ball with an impressive 2.66 ERA in his debut season, though his limited 115 innings of experience could be tested by a Mets offense that's shown flashes of power with 214 home runs.
The Cubs' bullpen has been a weapon all season with a 68.9% save rate, giving them a significant late-game advantage over a Mets relief corps that's blown 27 save opportunities.
With the Cubs looking to maintain momentum heading into October and the Mets desperately needing wins, this Tuesday night clash at the Friendly Confines carries plenty of weight for both clubs.
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