The Tampa Bay Rays head to Baltimore Wednesday night as road favourites despite both clubs being out of playoff contention, with the Rays at -182 and the Orioles at +150 for what shapes up as a competitive late-season matchup.
Shane Baz takes the mound for Tampa Bay looking to build on his solid campaign, while Tyler Wells counters for an Orioles squad that has struggled with pitching consistency throughout the year.
With the Rays posting a slightly better record at 76-80 compared to Baltimore's 73-83 mark, this American League East clash offers value hunters a chance to back the home underdogs at Camden Yards.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup, our predictive model gives the Orioles a 58.5% chance of defeating the Rays.
Baltimore Orioles: 58.5% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid offensive production (662 runs scored)
- Better recent momentum than Tampa Bay's inconsistent form
- Superior run differential shows balanced team performance
Tampa Bay Rays: 41.5% win probability
- Poor recent form with LWLLW record shows inconsistency
- Road struggles evident in lower overall winning percentage (.484)
- Weaker offensive output (696 runs) despite allowing fewer runs defensively
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Orioles vs. Rays Odds
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays preview
The Rays arrive in Baltimore carrying the weight of a disappointing season, sitting six games under .500 despite expectations of contending in the AL East.
Shane Baz takes the mound for Tampa Bay with his 4.32 ERA, facing a Baltimore lineup that has struggled mightily this year, ranking 24th in runs scored at just 4.21 per game.
Tyler Wells counters for the Orioles with notably better control than his opponent, posting a solid 3.65 strikeout-to-walk ratio compared to Baz's more erratic command.
Both bullpens have been problematic all season, with Tampa Bay converting just 55.6% of save opportunities while Baltimore has blown 20 saves despite a slightly better 65.5% conversion rate.
The Orioles' offense has been particularly brutal against right-handed pitching lately, striking out 1,399 times this season while managing just a .237 team average.
With both teams essentially playing out the string, this becomes a battle of pride more than playoff positioning, though Baltimore's home crowd at Camden Yards could provide the edge in what should be a tight, low-scoring affair.
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