The Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets at Wrigley Field on Wednesday in a matchup that could shape both teams' late-season trajectories, with Chicago sitting comfortably at 88-68 while New York (80-76) fights to stay relevant in the playoff race.
The Cubs enter as solid -152 moneyline favourites behind their superior pitching staff that ranks 6th in MLB with just 4.07 runs allowed per nine innings, though the Mets present value at +126 with their ability to generate offense despite inconsistent results.
All eyes will be on the pitching duel between Cubs veteran Matthew Boyd and Mets newcomer Jonah Tong, whose limited 16-inning MLB sample size and 6.11 ERA could provide Chicago with a significant edge in this 8-run total contest.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cubs vs Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Mets a 61.5% chance of defeating the Cubs.
Chicago Cubs: 38.5% win probability
- Concerning recent slide with LLLLL form showing five straight losses heading into this matchup
- Defensive struggles allowing 4.04 runs per game (634 runs allowed in 157 games)
- Inconsistent late-season performance despite strong overall record potentially indicating fatigue
New York Mets: 61.5% win probability
- Superior offensive production averaging 4.77 runs per game (748 runs in 157 games) compared to Cubs' 4.82
- Better overall record at 81-76 (.516) versus Cubs' 88-69 (.561) showing recent competitive edge
- Strong recent momentum with WLLWW form including three wins in last five games
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
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Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets preview
The Cubs enter Wednesday's matchup riding momentum with an 88-68 record that puts them firmly in playoff contention, while the Mets at 80-76 are fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive in what could be a season-defining series at Wrigley Field.
Chicago's pitching staff has been the story of their success this season, ranking 6th in the majors with just 4.07 runs allowed per nine innings and boasting an impressive 7.90 strikeout-to-walk ratio that reflects excellent command from their rotation.
The Mets counter with a more balanced attack, averaging 4.7 runs per game behind 215 home runs, though their bullpen remains a concern with 27 blown saves and a modest 58.5% save rate that has cost them in tight games.
Matthew Boyd takes the mound for Chicago with his veteran presence and 1,042 career strikeouts, while the Mets turn to Jonah Tong, who's still finding his footing in the majors with a 6.11 ERA across limited big league action.
With both teams jockeying for October positioning, expect a tightly contested affair where Chicago's superior pitching depth could prove the difference in a game that feels like it will be decided by the smallest of margins.
The Cubs' home field advantage at Wrigley becomes even more critical given their strong defensive play this season, ranking 3rd in MLB with a 71.8% defensive efficiency that has consistently bailed out their pitchers in crucial moments.
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