The Cincinnati Reds host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on Wednesday night in what shapes up as a critical late-season matchup, with Cincinnati (-160) fighting to stay in playoff contention while Pittsburgh (+132) looks to play spoiler.
Paul Skenes takes the mound for the Pirates with his stellar 2.01 ERA and 0.955 WHIP facing off against the Reds' Hunter Greene, setting up a quality pitching duel between two young arms.
With Cincinnati's superior offensive output averaging 4.47 runs per game compared to Pittsburgh's league-worst 3.6, the Reds appear positioned to capitalise at home despite both teams showing solid defensive metrics throughout the season.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Reds a 63.5% chance of defeating the Pirates.
Cincinnati Reds: 63.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production with 699 runs scored, ranking 8th in the National League
- Solid pitching staff allowing just 667 runs, 4th-best ERA in the NL
- Hot streak with four wins in last five games (LWWWW recent form)
Pittsburgh Pirates: 36.5% win probability
- Worst offense in baseball with only 565 runs scored this season
- Struggling with consistency, posting just a .433 winning percentage
- Poor road performance as part of a 13th-place National League finish
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Reds vs. Pirates Odds
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
The Pirates head to Cincinnati carrying the baggage of a disappointing 67-89 season, but they'll send their ace Paul Skenes to the mound against Hunter Greene in what should be a compelling pitching matchup.
Skenes has been absolutely dominant this year with a 2.01 ERA and 379 strikeouts across 314 innings, giving Pittsburgh their brightest spot in an otherwise forgettable campaign.
Cincinnati sits at 80-76 and still has something to play for, though their offense has been inconsistent despite averaging 4.47 runs per game.
The Reds have struggled with their bullpen all season, converting just 63.3% of save opportunities compared to Pittsburgh's even worse 58.6% rate.
Greene brings a solid 3.66 ERA to the table, but he's facing a Pirates lineup that ranks dead last in baseball in runs scored at just 3.6 per game.
With both teams' relief corps shaky at best, this matchup could come down to which starter can go deeper into the game and keep his team's bullpen on the bench.
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