The New York Mets travel to Wrigley Field on Thursday night for a crucial late-season clash with the Chicago Cubs, with postseason positioning hanging in the balance as both teams fight for playoff spots.
While the Cubs (88-69) hold home field advantage and superior record, the betting market shows a nearly even split with Chicago favoured at -122 on the moneyline despite the Mets' strong road form this season.
The pitching matchup features promising young arms in Nolan McLean for the Mets and veteran Shota Imanaga for Chicago, setting up what could be a low-scoring affair at the Friendly Confines.
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 61.5% chance of defeating the Mets.
Chicago Cubs: 61.5% win probability
- Strong offensive production with 767 runs scored this season
- Solid pitching staff allowing just 637 runs against
- Better recent form despite struggles, sitting 2nd in NL Central
New York Mets: 38.5% win probability
- Inconsistent offense with only 751 runs scored compared to Cubs' 767
- Defensive struggles allowing 700 runs against vs Cubs' 637
- Poor road performance as they sit 12 games behind division-leading Phillies
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
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Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets preview
The Cubs head into Thursday night's matchup at Wrigley Field with a 7-game advantage in the standings over the visiting Mets, but both teams are still battling for playoff positioning in the final stretch.
Chicago's pitching staff has been stellar this season, posting a 3.82 ERA that ranks 6th in MLB, while their defense has been even more impressive with a .989 fielding percentage that places them 5th league-wide.
Shota Imanaga takes the mound for the Cubs with solid career numbers - a 3.11 ERA and a tight 0.993 WHIP - facing off against the Mets' Nolan McLean, who has been lights-out in limited action with a microscopic 1.28 ERA across 42 innings.
New York's offense has struggled to find consistency, managing just 4.8 runs per game despite slugging 218 home runs, while the Cubs have been nearly identical at 4.82 runs per contest but with better run prevention.
The Cubs bullpen presents a clear advantage with a 67.7% save rate that ranks 5th in baseball, compared to the Mets' struggling relievers who have converted just 58.2% of their save opportunities.
With both teams still fighting for their postseason lives, expect a tight, low-scoring affair between two clubs that know how to pitch and play defense when it matters most.
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