Thursday's MLB slate offers sharp value plays across both game totals and player props, with pitching matchups setting up perfect low-scoring scenarios.
The Pirates-Reds finale screams Under 8.5 after 11 of their 12 meetings this season stayed below the total, while home run props on Freeman, Guerrero Jr., and Alvarez present solid value based on favorable pitcher matchups.
Our expert analysis breaks down the key trends, pitcher splits, and betting angles that make these picks stand out in today's action.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
|---|---|---|
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Reds vs. Pirates betting tips
The Under has cashed in 11 of 12 meetings between these teams this season, establishing a clear trend for low-scoring games in this matchup.
Both Nick Lodolo and Braxton Ashcraft bring solid recent form to the mound, with Lodolo owning a 3.44 ERA and Ashcraft posting a 2.77 ERA in September.
Neither team has been producing offensively lately, with Cincinnati managing just three runs on Wednesday and two in the series opener.
The Reds scored only one run in their previous series finale against Chicago, while Pittsburgh has shown similar struggles at the plate recently.
This pitching matchup favors run prevention, as Lodolo limited the Pirates to one earned run earlier this season and Ashcraft has been stingy in September.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers betting tips
Freeman enters with strong historical success against Zac Gallen, going 7-for-27 lifetime with two homers against the Diamondbacks starter.
The veteran first baseman is riding a four-game hitting streak and has three home runs in September, showing recent power form.
Freeman has been particularly effective against right-handed pitching this season, batting .298 with 14 of his 21 homers coming off righties.
Gallen has surrendered four home runs across his last three starts, indicating recent vulnerability to the long ball.
At .291 with 21 homers and 85 RBIs, Freeman remains a consistent threat in the heart of the Dodgers lineup despite a slight power dip from previous seasons.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox betting tips
Guerrero Jr. owns exceptional numbers against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello, going 11-for-27 lifetime with four doubles, two homers, and 10 RBIs.
The Blue Jays slugger has been locked in during September, batting .341 despite hitting only two home runs this month.
With Toronto tied for first place with the Yankees, this becomes a must-win situation where Guerrero Jr. typically elevates his performance.
He has 17 of his 23 home runs this season against right-handed pitching, and Bello fits that profile perfectly.
Playing at Rogers Centre gives Guerrero Jr. an additional edge, as 12 of his homers have come on home soil this season.
Cubs vs. Mets betting tips
Alvarez has been scorching hot lately with three home runs in his last six games, including back-to-back contests with long balls.
The Mets catcher owns a perfect track record against Cubs starter Shota Imanaga, going 1-for-2 lifetime with that one hit being a home run.
Imanaga has struggled recently against power hitters, surrendering five home runs across his last two appearances.
Alvarez has shown consistent pop against left-handed pitching this season with three homers off southpaws, and Imanaga presents another lefty matchup.
At just 23 years old, Alvarez appears to be finding his power stroke at the perfect time for the Mets playoff push.
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