The Atlanta Braves host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Truist Park on Friday night in what shapes up as a crucial late-season matchup between two teams heading in different directions.
Atlanta sits as heavy home favourites at -275 on the moneyline despite their disappointing 75-84 record, while the Pirates come in as significant underdogs at +220 after managing just 69 wins this season.
With Mitch Keller taking the mound for Pittsburgh against Joey Wentz for Atlanta, this contest offers intriguing betting value on both the spread and total in what could be a pitcher-friendly affair.
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates matchup, our predictive model gives the Braves a 68% chance of defeating the Pirates.
Atlanta Braves: 68% win probability
- Home field advantage with strong offensive support (716 runs scored ranks 12th in NL)
- Better recent momentum coming off four-game winning streak (LWWWW form)
- Superior run differential at -5 compared to Pirates' -67 deficit
Pittsburgh Pirates: 32% win probability
- Worst offense in National League with just 570 runs scored in 159 games
- Poor road performance as bottom-tier team with .434 winning percentage
- Struggling to score consistently with 67-run negative differential this season
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
Don’t miss out on top sportsbook promos. Get more out of every bet by browsing the latest US betting sites and betting apps for 2025.
Atlanta Braves vs. Pittsburgh Pirates preview
The Pirates and Braves close out their seasons with a Friday night matchup that showcases two teams heading in opposite directions, as Atlanta sits at 75-84 while Pittsburgh limps to the finish at 69-89.
Pittsburgh's offense has been historically bad this season, ranking dead last in the majors with just 3.6 runs per game and a .231 team batting average that makes every at-bat feel like a struggle.
The Braves counter with a more balanced attack that produces 4.5 runs per contest, though their pitching staff has been inconsistent with a 4.36 ERA that ranks 20th in baseball.
On the mound, Mitch Keller brings a 4.52 career ERA for the Pirates while Joey Wentz takes the ball for Atlanta with concerning numbers including a 5.53 ERA and 1.524 WHIP.
With both bullpens showing cracks under pressure - Pittsburgh's relievers have blown 26 saves while Atlanta has managed just a 61.1% save rate - this could turn into a late-game chess match.
The betting market heavily favors the home Braves at -275, but with two struggling clubs playing out the string, Friday's contest feels more like a coin flip than the lopsided affair the odds suggest.
Betting on the MLB?
Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.