The Detroit Tigers (85-73) travel to Fenway Park on Friday night to face the Boston Red Sox (87-71) in a crucial late-season matchup that could shape both teams' playoff positioning.
With Detroit listed as +150 underdogs against Boston's -182 favourites, the Tigers will look to rookie Casey Mize to outduel Red Sox prospect Connelly Early in what promises to be a pitcher-friendly contest with the total set at 9 runs.
Both teams have shown solid offensive production this season—Boston averaging 4.91 runs per game compared to Detroit's 4.7—but their contrasting pitching staffs and defensive efficiency could determine which club gains crucial ground in the final stretch.
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Red Sox vs Tigers matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 66% chance of defeating the Tigers.
Boston Red Sox: 66% win probability
- Superior offensive production (777 runs scored vs Detroit's 750)
- Better overall record at 87-72 compared to Detroit's 86-73
- Home field advantage with stronger divisional positioning (3rd in AL East vs 2nd in AL Central)
Detroit Tigers: 34% win probability
- Recent struggles with five straight losses (WLLLL form)
- Defensive concerns allowing 682 runs compared to Boston's 668
- Road disadvantage facing a Red Sox team with better run differential (+109 vs +68)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds
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Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers preview
The Red Sox enter this late-season matchup at Fenway needing every win they can get with just eight games remaining and playoff positioning on the line.
Detroit's Casey Mize brings a 4.22 career ERA into hostile territory against Boston rookie Connelly Early, who has been electric through his first 14 innings with a 1.91 ERA and just three earned runs allowed.
Boston's offense has been clicking at a higher level, averaging 4.91 runs per game compared to Detroit's 4.7, though the Tigers have shown better plate discipline with fewer strikeouts per game.
The Red Sox bullpen has struggled in save situations this season, converting just 61.1% of their opportunities compared to Detroit's 64.4% save rate.
Early's small sample size could be a factor as he faces his toughest test yet against a Tigers lineup that has launched 194 home runs and posted solid power numbers throughout the campaign.
With both teams carrying defensive questions—Boston ranks 30th in fielding percentage—this could turn into the type of slugfest that Fenway Park often produces in late September.
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