The Chicago Cubs host division rival St. Louis Cardinals at Wrigley Field on Friday in what could be a pivotal late-season matchup, with Chicago sitting at 89-69 and holding firm playoff positioning while the Cardinals (78-81) look to play spoiler.
The Cubs enter as -145 favourites behind a solid 4.85 runs per game offense and the seventh-best pitching staff ERA (3.81), facing a Cardinals team that has struggled offensively this season with just 4.3 runs per contest.
With veteran Miles Mikolas taking the mound for St. Louis against Chicago's Colin Rea, this NL Central clash features two teams heading in opposite directions as the regular season winds down.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 67.5% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
Chicago Cubs: 67.5% win probability
- Superior record advantage (89-70 vs 78-81 Cardinals)
- Dominant home field edge with stronger offensive production (772 runs scored vs Cardinals' 685)
- Better run differential showing balanced team strength (+127 vs Cardinals' -48)
St. Louis Cardinals: 32.5% win probability
- Poor recent form with inconsistent play (LWWWL in last 5 games)
- Struggling pitching staff allowing 733 runs against compared to Cubs' 645
- Below .500 record at 78-81 showing season-long inconsistency
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals preview
The Cardinals stumble into Wrigley Field riding a disappointing 78-81 season, but division rivalries have a way of throwing records out the window.
Miles Mikolas takes the ball for St. Louis with a career 4.23 ERA and a tendency to surrender the long ball, facing a Cubs lineup that's mashed 211 home runs this season.
Chicago's pitching staff has been the story all year, posting a sharp 3.81 team ERA that ranks 7th in the majors while their bullpen owns an impressive 68.3% save percentage.
The Cubs offense has found its groove at home, averaging nearly five runs per game behind solid plate discipline that's drawn 544 walks compared to St. Louis's meager 472.
Colin Rea gets the nod for Chicago despite allowing 8.8 hits per nine innings in his career, but the Cubs defense behind him ranks 3rd in baseball with a .989 fielding percentage.
With both teams' seasons winding down, this Friday night affair at the Friendly Confines could swing on which bullpen holds up better in the late innings.
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