The New York Mets (81-77) visit the Miami Marlins (77-81) at loanDepot park on Friday night with both teams playing out the string in what's become a meaningless late-season matchup.
New York enters as -150 road favourites despite their mediocre .513 winning percentage, facing a Marlins squad that's been slightly better at home this season.
The pitching matchup features rookie Brandon Sproat making just his second career start against veteran Sandy Alcantara, who's looking to build on a solid 3.66 ERA in his return from injury.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 58.5% chance of defeating the Mets.
Miami Marlins: 58.5% win probability
- Home field advantage against divisional rival (77-82 record at .484)
- Better recent momentum with three wins in last five games (LLWWW)
- Superior run differential management compared to season expectations
New York Mets: 41.5% win probability
- Road struggles as visitor in late-season divisional games
- Inconsistent form with mixed recent results (WLWLL)
- Higher runs allowed than Miami despite better overall record (705 vs 791)
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
Don’t miss out on top sportsbook promos. Get more out of every bet by browsing the latest US betting sites and betting apps for 2025.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets arrive in Miami carrying legitimate Wild Card hopes with a crucial four-game lead over the Marlins in the standings, making this a must-win series for New York's postseason push.
Brandon Sproat gets his second career start for the Mets, bringing a 3.94 ERA in limited action, while facing the veteran Sandy Alcantara who's posted a respectable 3.66 ERA despite Miami's struggles this season.
New York's offense has been consistently solid all year, averaging 4.8 runs per game behind 220 home runs, but they'll face an Alcantara who's allowed just 7.8 hits per nine innings in his career.
The Marlins bullpen has been surprisingly reliable with a 63.9% save rate, ranking 13th in the league, which could keep them competitive in late innings despite being 77-81 overall.
Miami's home venue at loanDepot park has historically played well for underdog pitchers, and Alcantara will look to outduel the rookie Sproat in what shapes up as a classic September baseball clash.
With the Mets needing every win they can get and the Marlins playing spoiler, expect both teams to empty their benches in what could be a tightly contested Friday night affair.
Betting on the MLB?
Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. We break down expert MLB predictions and deliver today’s MLB best bets with clear, data-driven analysis. Want secure and reliable options? Explore our top picks for MLB betting sites.