MLB Best Bets September 26: Cubs Clinch Spot, Springer Stays Hot

Friday's MLB slate features compelling matchups where hot hitters meet favorable pitching matchups, creating prime betting value across the board.George Springer continues his torrid pace for Toronto against Tampa Bay's struggling Adrian Houser, while Chicago looks to clinch home-field advantage as heavy favorites over a limping Cardinals offense.Our expert analysis breaks down the key statistical edges and betting angles that make these games stand out on today's busy baseball card. George Springer has been Toronto's best hitter all season, leading the team in home runs and runs scored with exceptional home performance at Rogers Centre.He owns a .986 OPS at home while averaging 2.01 total bases per game, giving him a strong foundation for this prop.The matchup favors Springer against Rays starter Adrian Houser, who has struggled in September with a 4.44 ERA and ranks in the 23rd percentile in expected batting average.Houser relies heavily on sinkers (46% usage rate), and Springer has been deadly against that pitch this season with a .378 average and .678 expected slugging percentage.Springer has gone over 1.5 total bases in seven of his last 12 games, and Houser's poor hard-hit rate ranking (sixth percentile) suggests another big night is likely."},{"id":"e6ffaf84-5aed-4b51-93db-cb0f92148098","pickName":"Daulton Varsho Over 1.5 Total Bases","oddsValue":"+400","partnerId":"","description":"Varsho has been exceptional against right-handed pitching this season, posting a .613 slugging percentage that ranks among the best in baseball.He has recorded 30 of his 31 extra-base hits against right-handed pitchers, showing a clear platoon advantage that directly applies to this matchup.The same factors that favor Springer also benefit Varsho, particularly Adrian Houser's struggles with hard contact and his sinker-heavy approach.Houser's poor September performance and ranking in the sixth percentile for hard-hit rate allowed suggests vulnerability to Varsho's power.This prop is part of a recommended same-game parlay, indicating the expert sees strong correlation between multiple Blue Jays hitters having success."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Blue Jays","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281611-team-logo-70WJD6H6.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Rays","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281579-team-logo-IA929OFO.png"},"venue":"Rogers Centre, Toronto, Ontario","matchDate":{"value":"2025-09-26T23:07:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}},{"fixtureId":"ROMDOGDM","id":"6ee8b5f9-464c-4375-b2ea-c1bb4add302d","picks":[{"id":"98e79ff3-ccc6-45fd-9ee1-b2d196c9e494","pickName":"Cubs -1.5 Run Line","oddsValue":"+110","partnerId":"","description":"The Cubs hold a significant pitching advantage with Colin Rea facing a struggling Cardinals offense that ranks 24th in wOBA and 28th in ISO against right-handed pitching.St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas has been terrible this season with a 4.76 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, and he was lit up for eight runs in six innings in his only 2025 start against Chicago.The Cardinals offense has been particularly bad in September, ranking 23rd overall and 30th in key offensive metrics during the month.Chicago is fighting for home-field advantage in their upcoming Wild Card series, providing extra motivation in this series opener at Wrigley Field.The potential return of star outfielder Kyle Tucker from his calf injury could provide an additional boost to the Cubs' offensive attack."},{"id":"6a979243-a5dd-4a9e-885a-dbe01f7ff8f1","pickName":"Under 8.5 Total Runs","oddsValue":"Under 8.5","partnerId":"","description":"Both the Cubs and Cardinals have strong trends toward the under, with Chicago hitting the under in 58 of their last 106 games and St. Louis going under in 43 of their last 74 games.This is a quick turnaround afternoon game after both teams played last night, which often leads to offensive struggles and lower-scoring affairs.While neither starter is elite, the Cardinals' offensive woes this season suggest they'll struggle to contribute significantly to the run total.The Cubs offense has been inconsistent enough that even with the pitching advantage, a modest scoring output is expected.Wrigley Field conditions and the afternoon start time could also favor pitchers over hitters in this matchup."}],"homeTeam":{"name":"Cubs","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281188-team-logo-G7I98EP0.png"},"awayTeam":{"name":"Cardinals","logo":"https://storage.googleapis.com/kibg-uploads/uploads/2025/07/1753281563-team-logo-CAAVGGTR.png"},"venue":"Wrigley Field, Chicago, Illinois","matchDate":{"value":"2025-09-26T18:20:00.000Z","timezone":"America/New_York"}}]" tablefooter=" Betting on the MLB?Sporting Post is your trusted hub for MLB betting coverage. 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