The Detroit Tigers (85-73) make the trip to Fenway Park this Saturday desperately needing a win to keep their playoff hopes alive, while the Boston Red Sox (87-71) have already locked up their postseason spot and may rest key players with nothing left to play for.
Boston will counter with rising starter Connelly Early, who has been dominant in his three starts this month with a 1.88 ERA and hasn't allowed a single extra-base hit to opposing batters.
With the Tigers ranking 22nd in both wOBA and slugging percentage this September, this matchup sets up as a potential pitcher's duel between two teams with vastly different motivations.
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Boston Red Sox vs Detroit Tigers matchup, our predictive model gives the Red Sox a 55% chance of defeating the Tigers.
Boston Red Sox: 55% win probability
- Strong offensive production with 782 runs scored, ranking 4th in the American League
- Home field advantage at Fenway Park with solid defensive metrics allowing 673 runs
- Better overall record at 88-73 (.547) compared to Detroit's identical 87-74 mark but with home momentum
Detroit Tigers: 45% win probability
- Inconsistent recent form showing 2-3 in last five games (WLWLL)
- Road struggles as visiting team against a quality AL East opponent
- Defensive concerns having allowed 687 runs, 14 more than Boston's 673 runs against
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Red Sox vs. Tigers Odds
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Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers preview
The Tigers arrive at Fenway carrying the weight of playoff desperation, needing every win they can get while Boston has already locked up their postseason spot and may rest key players over their final two games.
Detroit's offense has struggled mightily down the stretch, ranking 22nd in both wOBA and slugging percentage in September while posting the fifth-highest strikeout rate for the month.
Chris Paddack takes the mound for the Tigers with a career 4.62 ERA, facing a Red Sox lineup that's been solid all season but could be without some regulars given their secure playoff position.
Boston counters with Connelly Early, who has been impressive in his three starts since joining the rotation, allowing just three earned runs while limiting opponents to a .236 average and zero home runs.
The Red Sox have been the better offensive team this season, averaging 4.91 runs per game compared to Detroit's 4.7, but their lack of urgency could level the playing field.
With Detroit's season hanging in the balance and Boston potentially in coast mode, this shapes up as a classic September mismatch where motivation might matter more than talent.
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