The Chicago Cubs welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Wrigley Field for Saturday's pivotal matchup, with both teams entering on vastly different trajectories as the season winds down.
Chicago sits at 89-69 and boasts one of MLB's most explosive offenses, ranking eighth in runs per game at 4.85, while the Cardinals (78-81) have struggled to find consistency despite their solid offensive foundation.
With the Cubs favored at -1.5 but both starting pitchers showing concerning underlying metrics, this NL Central clash could turn into the high-scoring affair that bettors are eyeing with the 9.5 total.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals matchup, our predictive model gives the Cubs a 66.33% chance of defeating the Cardinals.
Chicago Cubs: 66.33% win probability
- Superior offensive production (791 runs scored vs Cardinals' 689)
- Better overall record sitting 13 games above .500 compared to Cardinals at 5 games under
- Stronger recent momentum with 3-2 record in last 5 games while Cardinals are also 2-3
St. Louis Cardinals: 33.67% win probability
- Defensive struggles allowing 752 runs compared to Cubs' 649 runs allowed
- Below .500 record at 78-83 showing inconsistent play throughout the season
- Poor recent form going 2-3 in their last 5 games with back-to-back losses
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
Odds are based on the latest data at publication and are subject to real-time updates.
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Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals preview
The Cubs return to Wrigley Field looking to keep their playoff hopes alive against a Cardinals team that's already been eliminated from postseason contention, but division rivalries rarely care about standings.
Chicago's offense has been clicking lately, ranking eighth in runs per game at 4.85, while their pitching staff has been solid with a 3.81 ERA that sits seventh in MLB.
The Cardinals counter with a lineup that's struggled to find consistency, averaging just 4.3 runs per contest, though they've shown they can still cause problems for division foes.
Michael McGreevy takes the mound for St. Louis with an 8-3 record but concerning underlying numbers, including a 4.80 expected ERA that suggests he's been fortunate to this point.
Jameson Taillon starts for the Cubs and despite recent success, his metrics tell a different story with bottom-half rankings in several key categories including strikeout rate and barrel percentage.
Seiya Suzuki has torched McGreevy in limited exposure with an .833 slugging percentage and one homer, making him a key factor in what should be another high-scoring affair between these Central Division rivals.
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