The New York Mets head to Miami this Saturday looking to gain ground in the NL Wild Card race, facing a Marlins team that's played spoiler all season despite being eliminated from postseason contention.
With Sean Manaea taking the mound for New York against Miami's promising young arm Eury Perez, the betting market reflects the stakes with the Mets sitting as road favorites at -122.
Both clubs enter with nearly identical offensive production, setting up a pitching-driven contest where small margins could decide the outcome at loanDepot park.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets prediction: who will win?
For tonight's Miami Marlins vs New York Mets matchup, our predictive model gives the Marlins a 53.5% chance of defeating the Mets.
Miami Marlins: 53.5% win probability
- Home field advantage with solid defensive metrics (705 runs scored vs 798 allowed shows competitive balance)
- Better recent form momentum with LWLLW compared to Mets' inconsistent WLWLW streak
- Stronger run differential efficiency despite similar record (Marlins -93 vs Mets -55 run differential with identical 78-83 records)
New York Mets: 46.5% win probability
- Road struggles evident in inconsistent recent form showing WLWLW pattern
- Offensive inconsistency with 766 runs scored spread across 161 games (4.75 runs per game)
- Defensive concerns allowing 711 runs in 161 games while maintaining only .516 winning percentage
At Sporting Post, our custom prediction model blends insights from leading MLB analysts to give you a clear edge.
Instead of sorting through endless opinions, we streamline expert picks, advanced team metrics, and market trends into one place. Our AI tracks top sources and assigns a confidence score to each prediction. These are averaged into a win probability that reflects the expert consensus. It gives you a data-backed view of what the sharpest minds in MLB expect.
Marlins vs. Mets Odds
These are the best MLB odds we found across major U.S. sportsbooks for this game.
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Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets preview
The Mets arrive in Miami looking to salvage what's left of their season, sitting at 81-77 and desperately needing every win as they chase playoff positioning in the final stretch.
Sean Manaea takes the ball for New York with a solid 4.09 ERA, facing off against the Marlins' young right-hander Eury Perez, who's been impressive with a 3.68 ERA and strong command this season.
Miami's offense has been quietly productive, posting a .251 team average while the Mets counter with slightly better run production at 4.8 per game compared to the Fish's 4.42.
The Marlins' bullpen has been surprisingly reliable with a 63.9% save rate, giving them a fighting chance in close games at loanDepot park where they'll look to play spoiler.
New York's pitching staff has been middle-of-the-pack with a 4.03 ERA, but their ability to limit big innings could be crucial against a Miami lineup that's struck out just 1,224 times this year.
With both teams essentially playing out the string, expect Miami to show some pride at home while the Mets treat this like the must-win situation their fading playoff hopes demand.
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