Sunday's season finale brings 15 MLB games with must-win stakes for playoff hopefuls, led by the New York Mets' do-or-die clash against Miami where Juan Soto looks to continue his dominant stretch with 2+ hits, runs, and RBI in 14 of his last 20 games.
Our expert analysis targets high-value props across the slate, including Aaron Judge at +173 to homer after four long balls in four games, plus a massive +9980 three-team home run parlay featuring Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and sleeper pick Ezequiel Tovar at +1100.
From playoff-clinching scenarios to season-ending power surges, we break down the sharpest betting angles and best odds for today's final regular season action.
MLB best bets
| Game | Time | Pick |
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Yankees vs. Orioles betting tips
Judge remains the betting favorite for American League MVP and has hit four home runs over his past four games heading into the season finale.
He faces Kyle Bradish, who despite limited appearances has struggled with hard contact this season.
Bradish ranks in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, making him vulnerable to power hitters.
Judge's recent form shows he's locked in at the plate and performing when it matters most for the Yankees.
The matchup sets up well for Judge to continue his power surge against a pitcher who gives up quality contact regularly.
Stanton enters Sunday in excellent form with three home runs over his past two games, showing he's seeing the ball well.
He's posted a ridiculous 1.857 slugging percentage and 2.482 OPS over his recent two-game stretch.
Against Kyle Bradish specifically, Stanton has a strong track record with a 1.000 slugging percentage and .846 expected slugging through three career plate appearances.
Like his teammate Judge, Stanton benefits from facing Bradish's struggles with hard contact and power prevention.
The Yankees' power duo is both hot at the same time, creating a dangerous situation for Orioles pitching on the season's final day.
Giants vs. Rockies betting tips
Tovar homered in the opening game of this three-game series against the Giants, showing he's comfortable against their pitching.
He has a strong track record against Logan Webb with a .556 slugging percentage and one home run through 18 career plate appearances.
Webb has struggled with hard contact this season, ranking in the bottom half of the league in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
The Rockies shortstop represents excellent value at long odds given his recent success and favorable matchup history.
Webb's contact management issues create opportunities for hitters like Tovar to do damage, especially given the established pattern of success.
Marlins vs. Mets betting tips
Soto has been exceptional down the stretch, recording 2+ hits + runs + RBI in 14 of his past 20 games while averaging 2.4 during that span.
He never went back-to-back games without clearing this line during his hot streak, and he had a quiet showing in Saturday's shutout victory.
Soto faces Edward Cabrera, who has struggled since mid-August, allowing at least three runs in four of his past five starts.
Cabrera previously gave up eight hits and six runs to these same Mets on August 30, showing vulnerability against this lineup.
The matchup favors Soto as a left-handed hitter against Cabrera's changeups and curveballs, where Soto owns ISOs of .246 and .333 respectively.
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